10 Ways To Win
This article was published in the Racing Post by their writer Mel Culinan. Here he gives ten ideas looking at different parts of betting that could improve your profits throughout the year.
1: You can win betting on sprint handicaps.
Far from being unfathomable, these events can be good betting mediums, particularly with fields of up to 16 runners. Paying attention to handicap marks is crucial.
2: Stamina is the key to the Derby.
The Derby is a good race to try to unravel since the market is largely governed by unreliable factors such as form over a mile and the horse’s trainer. Staying power is the single most important determinant in finding the winner.
3: Always identify and follow 7f specialists.
More than any other distance on the Flat, this is a specialist trip. Look for horses that excel at it.
4: Be wary of wide-margin winners.
Most punters simply love easy, wide-margin winners, but for the discerning there is often money to be made by opposing them. A horse’s chance should be assessed in the light of their overall career record, not one flashy success, to which the market often overreacts.
5: Unlucky last-time-out losers are often overbet.
Backers usually go overboard about a horse widely perceived to have been unlucky in a previous start. Take a more measured view of things – it’ll pay off long term.
6: Oppose selling-race winners in nurseries.
Year after year selling-race winners are raised in grade and, with last-time-out 1s beside their name, are popular in the betting. They usually fail.
7: A wide draw in a sprint handicap can be a plus.
Despite the seeming dictates of common sense, results at some tight tracks – notably Bath and, to an extent, Pontefract – show that horses from outside draws have an advantage.
8: Follow top jockeys in big handicaps.
Jockeyship is a pivotal factor in the major Flat handicaps, especially at anything up to middle distances. When the emphasis is on split-second decisions, quick thinking, nerve and strength are crucial, and top riders win a high proportion of such races.
9: Recently gelded horses must be opposed.
A big negative often overlooked by both pundits and the betting public. Use the Racing Post’s Signposts feature to identify horses gelded since their last run, and cross them out if this is within the last four months or so as their training programme must have been interrupted.
10: Don’t underestimate big handicap form.
Follow top handicappers when they move to Listed and Group 3 level. There is no clear blue water between the top handicaps and Pattern races, yet the betting market often underestimates horses graduating from handicap company.