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Racing Articles
2.How to compile speed ratings.
Author: Matt Bisogno:
Horse Racing Systems
– Horse racing systems, trialled ‘live’ in front of
readers. No fluff, just straightforward ‘it works or
it doesn’t’ information.
So how does
anyone actually go about calculating speed ratings? It is obvious to
even the newest of newbies that it is not simply a case of clocking the time
for a race. This would make no account of the numerous variables already
touched upon, particularly track constitution and going.
So, in order to factor some of these elements into the calculations, and to
create a degree of uniformity, we need some reference data.
Firstly, we need a set of ‘standard times’. A standard time is simply a
constant approximation of the time a horse would take to cover the race
distance for a particular class of race at a particular track, usually whilst
carrying a specific weight. From there, the individual race times on a given
day can be derived, and a ‘track variant’, or going allowance, can be
calculated.
I record my own standard time
for every course and distance in the UK and adjust
these times each quarter to keep all records and
ratings bang up to date.
The basic process for working out the speed figures is as follows:
1. Find the distance and race class for each race on the card
2. Find the actual times the winners recorded
3. Calculate the track variant, or 'going allowance' to calculate if the race
is faster or slower than standard and by how much per
furlong.
4. Work out the ratings for the winner and the beaten horses
The first two parts are simple and straightforward, the things get a little
complicated.
The going allowance is interpretable. What I tend to do, in line with the Nick Mordin
approach outlined in his book ‘Betting For A Living’
and stated in full in the excellent ‘Mordin on Time’,
is throw out the fastest and slowest run races. At
this point I also factor in a class allowance which
levels the ratings to a consistent basis and is
something I feel is one of the most important factors
and is something most other 'speed raters' do not do.
I then look at the subset of data I have left to see if there are any further
outliers (i.e. race times that are obviously out of kilter with the
remainder, or run ridiculously slowly, usually in low grade novice events over
the jumps).
For all of the remaining race times, I calculate the average, based on the
adjusted time difference per furlong. This then becomes the going allowance.
To calculate the ratings for the beaten horses, you
simply divide the distance beaten by the race distance
in miles, and subtract that from the winner’s rating
but I need to clarify two points here:
Firstly, the standard practice is to assume that one point on the ratings equates to one length beaten over a
mile or, in time terms one fifth of a second per mile. So, in theory, a horse
beaten a length over a mile has run to the same relative mark against the race
winner as a horse beaten two lengths over two miles. (I hope this makes
sense). However I do not take this view. I work on a different scale of beaten
lengths working on the basis of adjusted time
difference per furlong.
Secondly, you’ll notice I’ve made no reference to weight in my assessments.
This is because my experience, and that of much better
qualified judges, suggests that the influence of
weight is overrated and more evidence of this can be
found in article 1.
It’s true that a horse due to carry a stone more weight may struggle, but a
pound or two here or there is rarely as important as the horse’s current winning
form or trying attitude.
By following this simple rating procedure, you can quickly build up a database
of numbers against horses and you will find that sometimes a horse will
surprise you with a very high rating. Do not be afraid to accept that a horse
can improve significantly for a change of surface, or if unexposed on the
surface. Be more sceptical if the horse is more experienced and suddenly
throws in a freakishly fast time as the chances of a repeat are slim.
I have been calculating my ratings for over 10 years
now and can remember the struggle at first to get a
set of data together, worrying whether my calculations
were worthy of the time I was putting in. I then had
to wait at least a year before I had enough ratings to
make some sort of decision on a race. Is it worth it
you ask?
Well for me personally, yes but
I recommend a willing attitude and some eye drops, as
you will be writing down pages and pages of data at
first and then you will need to compile your database
too! Am I trying to put you off? No not really, just
giving you the truth as well as to say the obvious.
You do not really need to start this task at all as I
have all of the information that you require here at
Inform Racing and subscription is not what you would
call expensive. See
the latest costs here.
A user of speed ratings once said,
"Oh dear the science of speed ratings, once bitten that's it for life I'm
afraid folks. Speed raters are a weird bunch who inhabit a twilght zone of their
own. They speak in a strange language and only use words like 'good to soft' for
the benefit of others when otherwise they'd be perfectly happy talking in terms
of a 'minus 3.12 track variant' and only a speed rater would know what the other one was on
about!!!"
Another commented,
"I never fail to be amazed by the number of people who pretty
well say the following about speed ratings once they've learnt the basics of the
dark art:
"I used to lose until"...... etc...... usually followed by "I wouldn't ever
contemplate betting without the figures now."
Author: Matt Bisogno:
Horse Racing Systems
– Horse racing systems, trialled ‘live’ in front of
readers. No fluff, just straightforward ‘it works or
it doesn’t’ information.
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