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Racing Articles/Notes
3. Handicapping Explained
The Handicappers
There are twelve Handicappers employed by the
British Horseracing Authority.
Some specialise in Jump racing, some specialise in Flat
racing and some split their year between the codes according
to which one is busier.
Usually each Handicapper is given a specific
group of horses to look after. For example, one person
looks after hurdle races of less than two and a half miles
whilst another does all the longer distance hurdle races. The advantage is that they get to see the same horses
again and again. That way they build up an understanding of
each horse’s form and characteristics which is a big help in
rating them appropriately.
The same principle covers Steeplechasing and
Flat racing.
The team is led by Phil Smith who is Head of
Handicapping and Dominic Gardiner-Hill who is Deputy Head.
How handicapping Works
You can vary the time it takes any athlete to
run his race by giving him a weight to carry. For example,
it would take Usain Bolt longer to run 100 metres if we
strapped lead weights round his ankles. In fact we could
produce an exciting race between Bolt and just about anyone
else if we could work out the right amount of weight to make
things equal.
Exactly the same approach works with horse
races. We can give different weights to each horse to make
things equal. That way every horse, owner, trainer and
jockey has a chance of winning the race.
The weight that you see in the race card is
the total burden that the horse will have to carry. This is
the jockey plus his saddle. If that still does not add up
to the weight that the Handicapper has specified then strips
of lead are put into the saddle until the total burden
weighs the right amount.
Each handicap race has a maximum and a
minimum weight that we can allocate and this will be stated
in the race conditions.
Why have handicap Races?
For most owners, handicaps offer their best
chance of winning a race. Without them, the top horses would
almost always win and there would be no point in owning
anything other than a top horse.
For any athlete other than the very elite,
there would be no point entering any sprint race that
included Usain Bolt.
How a horse qualifies for a
handicap rating
In most cases, a horse runs three times in
non-handicap races before it is allowed to run in handicap
races.
On the Flat those non-handicaps would
typically be maiden races (for horses that have never won).
There are other races for which they would be eligible
including Conditions races, Novices, Claiming and Selling
races.
Over obstacles they would typically run in
Novice races but there are other races for which they are
eligible including all the race types above as well as
Beginners races.
Once they have run three times, the
Handicapper can give the horse a handicap rating as long as
he feels that there is enough evidence on which to base it.
Understandably, if you fell on all three starts then there
will not be enough evidence.
If you win one of your early races then you
may be able to get a handicap rating sooner. Over jumps you
might also be able to get a handicap rating by finishing in
the first four on both of your first two starts.
What is a handicap rating?
A handicap rating is a way of expressing the
merit of a horse’s performances on the racecourse. The
higher the number, the better the handicapper thinks the
horse’s performances are under that code. The very best
horses on the Flat have ratings in the 130s. The very best
Jump horses have ratings in the 180s. The scales differ
because horses carry more weight in Jump races.
The average rating of all horses on the Flat
is about 60 and the average for jumping is about 95.
The handicap ratings will translate into the
weight that the horse will actually carry in a race. If
horse A is rated 100 and horse B is rated 90 then horse A
will have to carry ten pounds more weight than horse B.
That is the difference that the handicapper thinks would
make for an equal race between them.
How the system operates
Once a horse has qualified to run in
handicaps, the BHA will usually publish a handicap rating
for it. A full list appears every Tuesday morning on the
BHA’s Racing Administration website.
Most handicaps are limited to horses with
handicap ratings in a specific range. If a Flat race is for
horses rated 56-70, for example, then nothing rated higher
than 70 is eligible for entry. Horses rated lower than 56
are allowed to run but they would normally be given weights
as if they were rated 56 irrespective of how much lower than
this they are actually rated. It would not normally make
sense for the trainer of a horse rated 46 to enter. He
would have to carry ten pounds more than the weight that the
handicapper thinks would give it an equal chance. Any horse
running under those circumstances is said to be “out of the
handicap”. It would be better to run in a race where he
would have his proper weight and a proper chance.
In most races, the deadline for entering a
horse is noon six days before the race.
Once that deadline has passed, the BHA
publishes the list of horses entered together with the
weights they have been set to carry. The trainers then
looks at the opposition, consider all the variables and
decides whether they want the horse to run in the race. On
the Flat that decision has to be taken by ten o’clock on the
morning two days before the race. Over jumps the deadline
is usually ten o’clock on the morning before the race.
Penalties
The Handicappers only get the chance to
change their ratings once a week, in time for the
publication on Tuesday morning. The latest form that they
are allowed to take into account is up to the end of
Saturday.
If a horse wins a handicap then its rating
will almost certainly go up. Since the handicapper thought
that every horse had an equal chance, the winner will
normally have run to a higher level than his current
rating.
The average amount that the rating of a
handicap winner goes up is eight pounds for jump racing and
six pounds for Flat races. It would not be fair to let the
winner run again off the handicap rating from which it has
just won since this would not give its opponents an equal
chance. If connections want to run again before we have had
the chance to reassess the rating then they can do so but
must carry a penalty. This is typically the same as those
average rises; and it is added to the weight calculated from
the old rating. It is the fairest way of making things
equal before the new ratings come into effect.
Weight for age (WFA)
Just as there are athletics races for
schoolboys, horses can start racing before they are fully
mature. In school athletics there would be no point in
getting the best 13yo to run against the best 18yo because
the older boy would beat him every time. You would need to
give the youngster a head start if you wanted an exciting
and interesting race.
The same is true for horses. If you want a
3yo to run against older horses then you have to make
allowances for his immaturity. You do this by reducing the
weight that the 3yo has to carry to even things up.
The BHA publishes charts showing how much the
weight has to be reduced to take account of the immaturity.
These are called “Weight For Age” allowances. There are
separate charts for Jumps and Flat. Obviously, the
allowance gets smaller as the months pass and the young
horse becomes more mature. The allowance also varies
according to the distance of the race – generally the longer
the race the more allowance is needed to make things equal.
The WFA scales apply to non-handicaps too and
are always in the race conditions. Otherwise it would be
impossible to make a fair and exciting race between horses
of different ages.
The Handicappers take account of this
allowance when calculating their figures.
Apprentice and conditional Jockey allowances
This is a similar concept to that of the WFA
allowance for horses.
It is unreasonable to expect a jockey in his
first few rides to be able to compete with the very top
jockeys. They need some help in order to even things up.
Without it, owners and trainers will never give them a
chance and it would be impossible for new jockeys to get
started.
The allowance is based on the number of
winners that each has ridden. Against experienced
professionals the allowances are:
Flat races
7lbs until they have won 20 races; thereafter
5lbs until they have won 50 races; thereafter
3lbs until they have won 95 races
Jumping
7lbs until they have won 20 races; thereafter
5lbs until they have won 40 races; thereafter
3lbs until they have won 75 races
Special rules and allowances apply when they
are taking on only other inexperienced jockeys.
Research has shown that these allowances do
an excellent job of giving apprentices the same chance as
full jockeys. They are the allowances which, on average,
they need to offset their inexperience. Because of this,
the Handicappers add the allowance back in when they are
making their calculations.
How do handicappers calculate
the merit of the performances?
Every time that a horse runs the handicapper
tries to work out the merit of that performance. We do it
by looking at our previous assessments of the opposition.
We then make calculations based on the weights that the
horses carried and their relative finishing positions in
this race.
In Flat races one length is typically
reckoned to be worth three pounds in sprint races, two
pounds in mile races and one pound in staying races. Over
Jumps one pound per length is typical but it might be less
in long distance races or on very tiring ground.
As an example, suppose that the winner of a
mile race is considered to have run to 90. A horse that
finished five lengths behind it at level weights might be
considered to have run to 80.
Even the simplest calculations of each
performance will take into account the distance of the race,
the going, the weight carried, the immaturity of the horses,
any apprentice allowances, the distance the horse won by or
was beaten by and the quality of the opposition.
In reality, calculations are never even that
simple for two reasons.
Firstly, in every race there is a wide
variation in the possible level for the ratings. The form
of one opponent might suggest that your horse has run to
100, the form of another horse might suggest 80. It all
depends on which of the opponents (if any) we believe has
reproduced their previous form, which have improved and
which have disappointed. Every race throws up a range of
possible interpretations.
Secondly, the data from each race is never
“clean”. There are so many factors to be taken into
account. Horses are slowly away, unsuited by the draw,
raced too keenly, hampered or get unbalanced in the race.
Things might not have been to the horse’s liking – the
going, the track, the distance, the pace of the race and so
on.
The job of the Handicapper is to consider all
these variables. The skill of the Handicapper is the
interpretation of form. To help him he will go through the
recordings of every one of his races again and again. The
Handicappers maintain a database with every run of every
horse, the level of performance decided by the Handicapper
together with notes on every race and every performance.
How those performances affect
handicap ratings.
For every race that a horse runs the
Handicapper has a figure for the merit of that performance
together with notes on the race and on that performance.
When a horse is eligible to run in handicaps,
the Handicapper must now consider what handicap rating to
give a horse.
In its simplest terms, a horse than runs to
80 on each of his first three starts (with no unusual notes)
will always be given a handicap rating of 80.
But what about a horse that ran to 80 then 50
and 30? Was the debut run a fluke? Were the conditions of
the other two runs very different? Or is there something
unusual and untrustworthy about that first run? The
Handicapper must take a very close look at all three runs
before deciding on a handicap rating.
Once a horse has a handicap rating, it may be
raised if the horse performs above that level; and it will
be dropped if the horse keeps performing below that level.
Every rating is an interpretation based on
the evidence available at the time. Each time there is new
evidence, the Handicapper will consider whether he is still
happy with the handicap ratings. The new evidence might be
when the horse has run again; but it might be when other
horses have run again.
As an example, imagine that a horse finished
second in a handicap. In the following weeks the first,
third, fourth and fifth each comes out, wins a race and go
up in the ratings. The Handicapper must consider whether he
under-valued the form in the first place. If so then he
will want to revalue it and the rating of the second might
go up even if he has not raced again. Far more often, the
other horses will have been disappointed and he will want to
bring down the rating of the second horse even though it has
not run again. When we move a horse because of the form of
other animals we call it a “collateral” change.
In an average week, two thirds of those
collateral changes are downwards.
International Racing
The BHA allow horses from abroad to run in
handicaps as long as they have qualified in the usual way
and they have enough evidence on which to base a handicap
rating. This is true of all races except for handicaps
restricted to 2yos.
In order to do this they maintain close links
with Handicappers from all the major racing nations.
Together they make sure that they are working to similar
standards and that they understand the levels and meanings
of each other’s ratings. The rating off which a foreign
horse runs here, though, is always ultimately the decision
of the BHA Handicapper.
Throughout the year, the Flat Handicappers
exchanges with their foreign counterparts ratings for every
top race run just about anywhere in the world. The Jump
Handicappers rate all performances from Ireland and many
from France. And they work closely with counterparts from
every other country that sends horses to race here.
There are conferences every year when the
Handicappers meet with those international colleagues.
The main Flat conference is in December and
results in the World Thoroughbred Rankings. These are
assessments of every horse in the world that was worth a
rating of 115 or higher in the year. They are the official
ratings that confer the status of world champions on the top
each in each category. They also agree a supplement of
horses in Europe rated 110-114.
The Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications fulfils
the same function for jumping horses and result from a
meeting held at the end of the season.
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