Back To Basics
It’s been a while since I posted something here on the Blog and whilst I can’t say I am going to be passing on any brand new ideas, I hope that what I do have to say helps some users do what the title of the post says and get back to basics.
I know that many subscribers to Inform Racing have their own particular ‘systems’ when using the ratings and if you can find something that combines a column or two or whatever to find a profitable formula then that is fantastic.
I quite often get a phone call from new users who ask me what is the best way to use the ratings and I always tell them that to begin with I advise that they concentrate on the top 3 rated horses in the master column because that has been the most consistent place to start looking for winners.
For over 12 years now there has been an all year round strike rate of over 50% which includes flat, jumps and all weather and whilst I also suggest using the two main pop up boxes for a quick overview of the form as well, just looking at these top 3 horses has provided thousands of winners over the years and some at some pretty good prices too.
I believe that if this strike rate, or indeed that of the top rated horses which is a consistent 24% – 25% all year round, ever dropped dramatically it would probably be a sign that the ratings were not performing and that something needed looking into.
There are peaks and troughs of course but when you have winners from the top 3 rated last week including Superfection at 40/1 and Willsy at 33/1 it can definitely be worth backing a few losers for those who I know dutch bet two or three of the bigger priced runners from the top 3 rated.
Currently February is running at a slightly above average of 27% for the top rated and 55% for the top 3 rated and this Saturday was another good day overall where there were 10 top rated winners and 8 further second or third rated winners, all from just 28 races on the day.
This included top rated Agrapart winning the 22 runner Betfair Hurdle at Newbury at 16/1.
Inform Racing Systems.
We also provide a few system ideas too for all subscribers and I know that many people follow one or two of these every day, or at least use the basics of the system rules to find their selections.
The one that I get most positive feedback about is system 4 where you look for a horse that has a top 3 last time out rating that came fifth or worse in it’s latest run.
Not just a good Inform Racing rating idea but a combination of the ratings along with with common sense, horse racing factors.
Th system idea works because you are looking for horses that ran down the field going by the finishing position which can often put a number of punters off, therefore the horses may be backed at a decent starting price.
The fact that it had one of the three best speed ratings for this seemingly ‘poor run’ last time out, allows us to see that actually the race the horse ran in was run at a good pace and the form can be relied upon.
Just on Saturday there was Royal Maskell who had a top 3 rating last time out and won at 14/1 by a comfortable length and a half, after only finishing 6th in the previous run and beaten eleven lengths!
Most people would look at this and dismiss the form, however users with access to the speed ratings would be able to see something that others cannot.
And if you can find a horse like Royal Maskell that finished eleven lengths off the winner, still produced a good speed rating and went on to win next time out, you can then look back at that previous race and keep an eye on the other horses when they run next time as this may be a race that can produce more future winners.
In fact the horse that came fifth in Royal Maskells’s last race, Spiritoftomintoul, came out and won by the same length and a half last Friday at 11/2.
So don’t just use the system to find a winner, take that winners last race and see what other gems may be hidden because a race run at a good clip is worth noting and where the horse finished may not count as much as the time that the horse finished the race in and the rating it achieved.
Another example is Schottische who also won at 14/1 on Saturday after finishing fifth last time out, beaten three and a half lengths yet still had one of the top 3 ratings last time out for this run.
Two other runners have posted excellent results already from Scottische’s last race with Gulland Rock winning at 6/1 and the winner, De Lesseps finishing second beaten only a head at 14/1.
So noting the other runners in the two races highlighted above and others where a system 4 winner is found, should provide one or two other winners in the future.
If you are looking to join or are a current subscriber in need of a little push in the right direction, then I suggest going back to basics could be the way to go or at least a good way to get started.
Of course there is a lot more information provided on the website that allows you to look deeper into the form and the ratings, however concentrating on the top 3 in the Master column, along with just a quick look at the two main pop up boxes to weed out those that probably don’t have a chance for today, can be the way to get things back on track.
And don’t forget the systems that are provided like the one highlighting winners above where you can either use them to the strict rules given or mix them up a little bit to suit the way that you prefer to be betting and winning.
Update: March 7th
For system 4 followers there was a classic selection yesterday in the first race at Sedgefield.
See Oak Vintage in the Novice Hurdle below was not only in the top 3 last time out column(Lto), but was actually clear top rated with 74.
Now if you hover your mouse over this 74 rating you will see that despite having the best rating last time out, the horse only finished 5th of 7 in this race and was one of the the outsiders of the field at 40/1.
Most people would look at the form and see the figures of 665 and dismiss the horse entirely, especially when it was starting at double figure odds and there was a 4/9 favourite too.
There were also other horses in the race with seemingly better form figures of 2P3, 2-123 and 2653.
The result: Oak Vintage Won 22/1 and was 31.16 on Betfair.
Clearly you can see here how the ratings can be used to your advantage and can provide that edge that users gain week in week out.
A horse that ran down the field will normally be discounted, however a good speed rating will provide a clearer picture of that run and can identify very good winners that others just won’t see.
System 4 Rules:
Any horse that has a top 3 rating in the last time out column that finished 5th or worse.
A very simple system that highlights very good winners and one that is based on solid, speed ratings reasoning.
Fields Of Glory was also a system 4 winner yesterday in the 4.00 at Huntingdon. The price of this winner was not so good at 5/2, however it was forecast in the Racing Post as the joint outsider at 16/1, so whilst I did not follow this one and cannot be sure, it is likely that the price would have been bigger earlier on the day, or the night before with the Best Odds Guaranteed bookies.