Betting Against Short Priced Favourites
Short priced favourites win a heck of a lot of races. In fact as you will see in the short video below, in the past two years, backing horses at 1/3 or shorter would have given you close to an 80% strike rate of winning bets.
However, this stat is significantly neutralised when you see that all those winning bets totalled a loss of around 12 points to BSP.
I think most of us are well aware already that backing short priced horses will really get you nowhere so it's always worth finding something to bet on against these runners.
It is definitely not a case of just backing the second favourite when a favourite starts odds on as this will also end up in a loss but when a horse starts so short, you will find that you get far better odds than you would do on other runners, especially the outsiders, than if the favourite was around 2/1 or 3/1.
As you can see on the video below, the favourite Buveur D'Air, was forecast at 1/3 and actually went off at 2/13. Bearing in mind the going was also heavy, there had to be something worth opposing the favourite with in this race.
By opposing these runners at odds on we already know that you will lose around 80% of the time, but that means that 20% of the time you can oppose these and find the winner.
So take a look at the video and see how you can use the speed ratings to help find your one or two against the jolly.
Warning: This video contains footage of a 16/1 winner with a BSP of 42, easily found using the speed ratings. If you are not used to finding winners at these sort of prices in minutes, without the need for hours of mind numbing form research, please do make sure you are sitting down 🙂
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