Cesarewitch Review And Trends
The second part of the Autumn double sees the Cesarewitch run today at Newmarket over a trip of 2 miles and 2 furlongs.
First run in 1839, it was originally named in honour of Tsesarevich Alexander who later became Tsar Alexander II, after he donated £300 to the Jockey Club.
Being a race of such great distance in general for flat horses, it does attract interest from a lot of jump trainers and their national hunt horses who are more used to running over such a distance.
Since 2000 the race has been won six times by jump racing trainers, including last year when Phillip Hobbs trained Big Easy to win at 10/1.
It is not a race particularly for favourites with only five winning in the last thirty five years and for those who like a punt on a big priced outsider, they will be happy to see that in the last seven years, the race has been won by one at 50/1 and two at 66/1.
There are clearly a number that have an excellent chance and in such an open race including the three at the head of the market.
Low Key who won last time out but in a very slow time and he goes up a further six pounds today.
Heratbreak City won by over two lengths last time at York over 2 miles and similar going today and goes up nine pounds after that impressive win.
Quick Jack has everything going for him apart from the draw in stall 30 and he will have to be very good to win from there, although with Ryan Moore in the saddle he could do that.
There are a few stats from the last thirteen runnings that we can look at to see what sort of horse wins this particular race and with it being so different to most run on the flat, these trends may be a little more useful than normal.
11 – had won over at least 1 mile and six furlongs.
10 – carried 9-1 or less.
10 – had at run at least three times before that season.
10 – finished 4th or better in their last run but only two won last time out.
9 – drawn in stall 12 or lower.
Taking these into consideration we are left with just the two and they are Deauville Dancer, best priced 25/1 and Gavlar, best priced 33/1.
Deauville Dancer ran a good race last week at Ascot over two miles, finishing second behind the in form Burmese and was six lengths clear of the third, so is in good form.
Gavlar couldn’t continue his winning form last time over 2 miles 5 furlongs here at Newmarket but finished a respectable 4th of thirteen and could run well again today over the shorter distance.
Both of these need to step up in class however with Deauville Dancer only winning in class 4 company and Gavlar in class 3, but of the two I do quite like Gavlar back in trip after the last run and the ground will be ideal for this lightly raced four year old.
Putting the trends aside, the two I keep looking at are Teak, about 40/1 and Nearly Caught, best price 20/1.
Teak has been running very well this year despite not winning and will be helped further by any drying ground. He was seventh in this last year and is not drawn too wide in 19, although he likes to be prominent so will want to get away on terms from there.
He has won in the class and over the distance and may have been trained for this race having had a two month break since a good third at Ascot where he ran on again after being headed, then hampered.
Nearly Caught was sixth in this race last year and was leading over two furlongs out, so his prominent style will only be helped by his low draw in stall 6.
The Good to Soft going will be fine and trainer Hughie Morrison has been in great form lately too.
You can ignore his last run at York where he raced alone but his previous runs would give him an excellent chance, especially his third in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle over two miles.
He was only beaten a length and a quarter that day by Quest For More who went on to finish second at Goodwood in a Group 2 race, so Nearly Caught must have a good chance of finishing closer this year than last and with most bookies offering five places today, looks like a decent each way proposition today.
What do you feel about these selections, this race itself and where will your money be going today?