Course Ratings Proving Profitable
A couple of weeks ago we added some new info to the race cards that showed at a glance, amongst other things, how many times a horse has previously won at the course and at the distance.
The response to this information that was already there, just not directly on the race cards, has been excellent and I have found myself looking at this new information each day and it didn't take me long to come up with a little systematic idea.
By combining this course and distance info with the ratings themselves, it gave me the best run on bets I have had for a long while when I started backing these horses on Friday evening.
Won 13/2, Won 11/4, Won 11/2 and Won 5/2
Those were the results of my four bets on Friday evening starting with the 8.10 Chepstow, through to the 9.10 race at the same venue. Unfortunately I backed these all as singles and not in a multiple but it gave me a great start and something to work from going forward.
Checking back the results from Friday the next morning, the results had not been so great during the day, with an 11/1 third the best from six other bets but it was still a good profit overall.
More winners were found over the next few days with the highlight on Monday, where Genuine Approval was a massive 40/1 winner at Wolverhampton!
More of that in a moment but firstly, what was I doing to find these horses?
The simple three step process
As I mentioned, firstly I was looking at the previous course and distance wins and then checking the Master rating, which is the best rating from the last 12 months, as well as the Course rating, which is the best rating at the course in the last 12 months.
Here are the rules.
1. Sort the race card by the Master rating, highest at the top.
2. Note all of the top 3 rated horses in the Master column, these are the ones highlighted in red.
3. Note any of these top 3 that have at least 1 win at the course and at least 2 wins over the distance. You can use the two new columns c and d after the horse name for this.
4 Any qualifiers you have must also be one of the top 3, in red, in the Cse column.
Here is the results card below for the first of the winners on Friday evening, Major Valentine, showing how it qualified on all points above.
(You can click all images below to enlarge them).
As you can see, the card has been sorted by the Master column and Major Valentine has a red rating here. You can also see the horse has won twice at the course before and seven times over the distance.
You can then see it has a top 3 rating in red in the Cse column. In fact it is top rated with an 80 here. Finally the results shows it won at 13/2 with a BSP of 8.4.
Using the system horses
My initial thoughts were that it may just be worth backing these horses if they were one of the first few in the betting, or under 10/1 perhaps as I thought there would be quite a few qualifiers using just these rules.
If you ever find a system that seems profitable, it is always worth keeping a record of as much info as you can as it well help filtering down the qualifiers to a better overall profit.
Fortunately for me, I decided to record what happened first before making a decision on what prices to back these horses at, because on Monday there was a wonderful winner at 40/1 followed by a 20/1 winner at Beverley on Tuesday.
I think the term is, 'Happy Days!'
Results since Friday
So far there have been six days of using this system idea with the following results.
15 won: 26%
9 more placed, so overall place strike rate is 41%
Placed horses include at 20/1, 16/1, 11/1, 9/1
Profit to level stakes at SP = +63.9 points
The winners were as follows:
Friday 12th July
8.10 Chepstow: Major Valentine Won 13/2
8.30 Chester: Powerallied Won 11/4
8.40 Chepstow: Gold Hunter Won 11/2
9.10 Chepstow: Jungle Juice Won 5/2
Saturday 13th July
2.05 York: Copper Knight Won 2/1
4.05 Ascot: Beat The Bank Won 2/1
5.30 Newton Abbot: No No Cardinal Won 5/1
Sunday 14th July
5.00 Perth: Boys On Tour Won 2/1
Monday 15th July
3.50 Ripon: Bossipop Won 15/2
7.10 Wolverhampton: Genuine Approval Won 40/1
8.10 Wolverhampton: Allux Boy Won 15/8
Tuesday 16th July
2.15 Beverley: Oriental Splendour Won 20/1
3.15 Beverley: Twin Appeal Won 7/2
3.45 Beverley: Won 5/2
Wednesday 16th July
5.00 Catterick: Be Perfect Won Evens
5.30 Yarmouth: Hart Stopper Won 9/4
These results certainly show a good strike rate and a good profit too but I am sure there are ways you can find to narrow down the bets and eliminate some of the losing bets.
With the rules being quite 'open' in what are mostly handicaps, there are going to be a number of qualifiers at all prices but I feel that the following could help to narrow things done.
1. With this being based on course ratings and form, it is possible that this will work better on certain courses that have their own quirks. Certainly Chepstow with its undulating, uphill finish that gave three winners on Friday, is quite a specialist type of track.
2. You could look at the number of days since the horse ran.
3. Increase the course wins to a minimum of two instead of one.
4. Take a look at the jockey and/or trainer stats at the course in question.
Like all of the system ideas I provide on these Blog posts, I hope you will get some ideas from this, or take the basic rules and run with it using your own interpretation and input.
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