Creating Your Own Betting Tissue Prices (2)
This post is an update to the previous one on this feature, with some updated results which appear to be very promising, as well as information on how users who couldn't manage to use the excel spreadsheet version, can now access the sheets each day.
This Betting Tissue Tool will soon be added to the website so everyone will be able to use it but for the time being, if you cannot for any reason, just login to the website as normal and you will see a link each day to access the sheets in Google Docs, with all of my calculations which I will explain below in more detail.
You may want to take a look at the original post first to refresh your mind on what this Betting Tissue Tool is and what it is setting out to do.
Let me give you the results that I have had and the settings I am using on this, so you can see the sort of results you may be able to achieve. Also how some days there have been a large amount of losers, just so you know what to expect.
The columns I use are Avg, Lto1, M+A and Master, the max BSP is set at 40 and I am only using full handicap races, flat and jumps with none for just 3YO or 2YO.
I am currently testing the tissue price X 1.5 but also recording results for tissue price X 2. The basics are that we are betting on anything in the first five of our betting tissue that is 1.5 X the tissue price using Betfair prices.
If you want to bet to SP then just take 1 off the tissue X 1.5 price and I am also looking at results if you consider or don't consider non runners. This means either just taking the first 5 in the tissue and betting just these or substituting other horses if one of these 5 is a non runner.
Since September 22nd using tissue X 1.5 and substituting any if non runners:
35 winners (8% Strike Rate)
Profit: +149 points
Average winning BSP: 17.78
So whilst the strike rate is not great, the overall profits and ROI% certainly are, bearing in mind this is from just 21 days of betting. (There was no UK racing yesterday, October 13th)
You are also not backing any short priced runners, with just four of the 35 winning bets having a BSP under 10 and ten being over 20.
If you can download the excel sheet for this okay with today's races on, you can play around with which ratings you want to use and how you want to calculate that data to get your tissue prices, but I would suggest following my settings for a few days to see how you get on.
You can see the results below for tissue X 1.5 and tissue X 2 below. The winning BSP's are in columns D to I.
Click any images to enlarge them.
An example of a winning bet explained.
Looking at the sheet above you can see that our calculations give the tissue price for each runner in column R. That tissue price X 1.5 + 1, to get a decimal price, shown in column W, is the lowest BSP price we will accept on any of the first five horses in our tissue.
Currently the sheets are not sorted by the tissue prices but in general they will be shown in order from smallest upwards but you can see that Sea Fox was fourth favourite on out tissue prices at 9.1.
This 9.1 multiplied by 1.5 is 14.65 and as the BSP for Sea Fox was bigger than this at 16.21, it was a bet and a winning one at that. You can also see that Rangali Island started bigger then the minimum required but finished just fourth, only beaten two short heads and a head.
The 1.8 to the right is the actual price divided by the tissue. If you only want to follow these if they are tissue X 2, then this number will need to be 2.0 or bigger for you to bet.
So subscribers can now get the sheets until this is on the website itself.
If you are a subscriber to Inform Racing, just login to get the link to the sheets each day until this feature is actually on the website itself. When it is then there will be no need for excel at all if you don't want to use it but I am not quite sure how long it will be until this is on the website now.
To sign up to Inform Racing now and get access to these sheets and bets each day, just use the link below.
I cannot guarantee what time I will be posting the link to access the sheets each day but they will be up before lunchtime at the latest.
These sheets will be cleaned up to show just the full handicap races I am using as well as the tissue price X 1.5, so you will know the minimum BSP to bet at on each horse.
Remember, we are only looking at the first 5 horses in our tissue price list and you must make sure you have the actual first five as the column is not sorted correctly at the moment.
I have been substituting the next horses in the list of tissue prices if one or more of the first 5 are non runners.
If I have had horses that have the same tissue price that would take me over 5 horses, I am filtering by highest Lto1 rating.
You will also see I have used the Age category as an additional field which means it shows the horses age to the right of the calculations. This means I can see right away if a race is for horses of all ages or just for two or three year olds.
Subscribing To Inform Racing
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If you are a member of Inform Racing you can access the link for these bets each day now.
If you are not a current subscriber but would like to be, then just hit the link below now.