All Weather Betting Systems
Because the AW surfaces are far more consistent at each meeting, horses that run well at an All Weather course are more likely to do so again.
A horse that has won at an All Weather course and returns to race again within a few days, has a far greater chance of repeating that win than if running next time out on the turf, however when a horse wins, it is more than likely the handicapper will raise its rating so it carries more next time out.
If the trainer wants to get the horse out again quickly before the handicapper has a chance to assess the form, the horse will have to carry a penalty
When this happens you will see (6ex) or something similar depending on where you are viewing the cards which means the horse is carrying a 6lb penalty, before it has time to be assessed.
As this will only occur when a horse has won very recently it highlights a horse that has a great chance of winning again. Especially on the All Weather.
Research suggest that the horse has an even better chance of winning again if it won by two lengths or more last time out, which makes sense.
However, the results are different depending on which All Weather courses you look at.
With not enough racing having taken part at Chelmsford and Newcastle as this is written, there are three courses where you can make a profit, following these good winners that are running again quickly and carrying a penalty.
Southwell can be dismissed as the stats do not show a real benefit at this course, possibly down to it having a Fibresand surface and winners may have come from winning at the other, faster AW tracks.
So following horses that are carrying a penalty at either Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton, that won by two lengths or more last time out, does statistically show an overall profit.
In fact it shows an ROI profit, (Return On Investment), of just over 11%, which means that for every £100 you stake, you would make £11 profit. Not an absolute fortune but something you can definitely take to the bank!
It is likely that these stats will be carried over to Chelmsford and Newcastle as they also have either Polytrack or Tapeta surfaces, but time will tell on this one.