How to Believe in Speed Ratings

Inform Racing has been providing Speed Ratings online since 2003 and it has grown over time more than I ever expected it too. But how to believe in speed ratings and to know they are accurate is something I did wonder myself from the outset.

When I began compiling my speed ratings, initially for myself, it was a laborious task and took hours to calculate and add results to my early database.

Quite often I considered packing it all in due to the intensity and demand of the work involved, however one thing kept me going and that was that I started finding and backing winners by simply using my speed ratings.

Not too long after this I had a piece of software developed that automatically worked out the rest of the fields speed ratings, once I had calculated the winners rating and this saved a huge amount of time.

With the ratings still compiled manually by me every day, it is still a task to ensure the ratings are as accurate as can be, but one that is now second nature and very enjoyable too, given the feedback I have receive on a regular basis.

Proving their accuracy.

Quite often I get asked if the speed ratings really do work and how they can be proven to be accurate. People want to know they can believe in speed ratings and I can understand this.

One way I think of showing this is to point people towards the ratings and the M+A column in particular. The M+A column shows the addition of the Master rating (best rating from the last 12 months) and the Avg rating, (the average of the last three ratings).

This provides an excellent all round, long term and recent calculated rating. One that many of the Inform Racing systems are based on and that gets a lot of feedback from subscribers.

Going by the starting price.

If you look at a race, more so a non handicap race, and see an odds on or short priced favourite, it is very likely that this horse will be top rated, or very often clear top rated, in the M+A column.

This doesn’t mean we only highlight short priced favourite horses, but when a horse is thought to have a far better chance of winning a race due to the short price, we are in alignment with the best of the form and to me, this is a good an indication of how accurate the ratings are.

If the majority of short priced horses had poor speed ratings, I think you would ask questions and wonder why. Would you agree?

With handicap races, there is much more form to puzzle over regarding weight carried and handicap mark etc.. and so the M+A column will not highlight so many favourites in these races.

Don’t forget however, that this column does produce a consistent strike rate for both handicaps and non handicaps, of better than 50% for the top 3 rated.

Example results  from the last 5 days.

Here are the results from all non handicap races from the last five days, showing the top 3 ratings from the M+A column, the finishing position and starting price.

Some races only paid on two places but I have shown horses that came third to show the number that ran close as well as those that won.

As you will see, the majority of horses that are top rated and well clear of the second best rated horse, started at odds on.

Wednesday

Carlisle:

1.50 – 151 Lost 5/4,   150 Won 7/4,   137 Lost 25/1
2.50 – 159 Won 2/1,   153 2nd 11/10,   142 Lost 11/4

Chelmsford:

2.30 – 132 Won 4/5,   126 3rd 10/1,   116 Lost 66/1
3.30 – 174 Won 11/4,   169 Lost 9/2,   166 3rd 11/8

Kempton:

6.50 – 148 Lost 33/1,   146 2nd 7/2,   142 Won 4/7

Ludlow:

140 – 157 Won 1/4,   130 Lost 66/1,   125 Lost 14/1
2.10 – 177 Won 1/3,   156 Lost 4/1,   152 Lost 25/1
3.40 – 169 Won 2/5,   136 2nd 7/2,   134 3rd 20/1
4.40 – 158 3rd 5/1,  136 Won 11/4,   129 Lost 33/1

Tuesday

Newcastle:

4.10 – 137 Won 2/1,   124 Lost 7/2,   122 Lost 66/1

Hereford:

3.15 – 157 2nd 4/5,   155 Won 7/2,   140 Lost 6/1
4.50 – 145 Lost 11/2,   144 Won 5/6

Market Rasen:

1.50 – 151 Won 1/4,   131 Lost 20/1,   126, 2nd 7/2
2.20 – 145 Won 2/5,   133 Lost 9/2,   107 Lost 28/1
2.50 – 170 3rd 7/2,   162 Won 9/4,   154 PU 5/2

Monday

Wolverhampton:

3.20 – 141 Lost 6/5,   139 2nd 11/1,   137 Won 5/2

Sedgefield:

3.05 – 143 Won 2/13,   104 2nd 5/1,   69 PU 20/1

Sunday

Musselburgh:

1.40 – 164 2nd 10/3,   161 Won 5/1,   142 3rd 6/1
2.10 – 156 2nd 4/1,   141 Won 4/9,   138 3rd 9/2
2.40 – 170 2nd 10/11,   165 Won 7/4,   164 3rd 13/2
3.40 – 164 Lost 5/6,   154 Won 10/3,   152 2nd 5/2
4.40 – 154 Lost 22/1,   144 2nd 4/6,   134 Won 10/1

Taunton:

1.50 – 172 Won 4/7,   152 2nd 13/8,   142 Lost 50/1

Saturday

Lingfield:

2.00 – 179 Lost 8/1,   176 Lost 8/1,   175 3rd 16/1
3.05 – 185 Lost 3/1,   175 2nd 5/2,   172 Won 9/2
4.15 – 156 Lost 9/2,   152 2nd 7/4,   125 Won 11/2

Newcastle:

7.15 – 150 Lost 3/1,   136 3rd 16/1,   132 2nd 11/4   (Winner was un-raced so had no M+A rating).

Wetherby:

1.05 – 147 3rd 6/4,   138 Lost 5/1,   116 2nd 16/1   (Winner was un-raced so had no M+A rating).
2.15 – 158 Lost 4/9,  147 Won 3/1,   146 Lost 5/1
2.45 – 173 Fell 6/1,   168 Fell 11/2,   166 2nd 11/4
4.25 – 157 2nd 11/4,   132 Lost 14/1   (Winner was un-raced so had no M+A rating).

Sandown:

12.40 – 169 Won 4/7,   167 2nd 5/4,   146 3rd 11/2
1.50 – 185 Won 1/4,   161 2nd 12/1,   141 3rd 9/2
2.25 – 184 Lost 13/8, 179 2nd 7/1,   178 Won 11/4

Musselburgh:

12.25 – 163 Lost 11/2,   158 Won 1/2,   138 3rd 8/1
1.30 – 182 Won 9/1,   179 2nd 13/2,   170 3rd 6/4

Summary

So from 36 non handicap races these provided 31 winners and an 86% strike rate, including winners at:

10/1, 9/1, 11/2, 5/1, 9/2, 7/2, 10/3, 3/1, 11/4, 11/4, 11/4, 5/2, 9/4, 2/1, 2/1, 7/4, 7/4

There were also 39 2nd’s and 3rd’s including prices of:

20/1, 16/1, 16/1, 16/1, 12/1, 11/1, 10/1, 8/1, 7/1, 13/2, 13/2, 6/1, 11/2, 5/1, 5/1, 9/2, 4/1, 7/2, 7/2, 10/3, 11/4, 11/4, 11/4, 5/2, 5/2, 7/4, 13/8, 6/4, 11/8, 5/4, 11/10

As well as this there were 7 races where the 1st, 2nd and 3rd came from the top 3 rated.

Incidentally, in the 68 handicap races over the last 5 days, there were also 38 winners found from the top 3 in the M+A column, so a smidge short of a 56% win rate for these overall.

Hopefully this confirms that the M+A column provides a great place to start when looking for speed ratings winners and whilst in non handicap races you may be looking at some unexciting prices much of the time, it offers evidence for you to believe in speed ratings and trust them to be accurate.

 

Ian Welch

Creator and owner of Inform Racing.com since 2003, I have over 30 years of racing and betting experience to share. Speed ratings are my main passion whilst updating the website and writing the odd blog post keeps me busy and hopefully other users well informed.

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