In Running Trading Tool – Dobbing Strategy
Recently we developed a Desktop App version of the In Running Trading Tool, which highlights those horses most likely to trade shorter in running and in particular, those horses that half in price and are likely to be successful DOB bets.
There is also extra form data provided which is useful to look back at and see why or why not a particular horse may have dobbed during a race or not.
Simple In Running Trading Tool Dobbing Strategy
There are a number of ways that you can look at the data included in the App, so a quick system has been created, with a number of rules that are simple to follow that has over an 18 week period, provided a healthy profit of 61 points.
Dobbing these selections would have a made a decent £1,224 profit using just £20 stakes, with a strike rate of over 70%.
This equates to over 175 points profit over a 12 month period and a profit using the same stakes of close to £3,500.
With the longest losing run during this period being just 2, you could be confident in placing larger stakes and even £40 a trade would make over £7,000 from this simple strategy over a twelve month period, were similar results to continue.
The biggest problem most punters face is patience and many cannot fathom the concept that there is always another race.
With some days during testing not having any bets at all this may trouble some traders but the key is to look long term and to see where you could be if you wait for those profitable horses that this system selects.
There is a spreadsheet that you can download at the bottom of the page which takes all results from the 26th June 2016 to 8th November 2016, showing all of those that passed the rules below.
In Running Trading Tool – Dobbing Strategy Rules
The rules may seem a bit long winded but are logical and very simple to apply as follows:-
1. Dobbing profit to be £70 or more. This was one of the first rules that I came up with after looking at the DOB tab over a number of weeks.
The software takes each runner and places an imaginary £10 Dobbing bet on every run and works out a profit or loss amount for each horse, including a default 5% exchange commission.
The resulting figure shows what you would have won or lost had you placed this £10 Dob stake on every horse on every run and is a simple way to narrow down those most likely to Dob again today, going on past results.
These horses are very simple to find as you can see on the image below, by clicking the DOB tab on the software , then the DOBReturn column (far right). This will sort the profit and loss amounts in order, making it easy to see all those at £70 or more.
(Please click any images to enlarge them for easier viewing).
2. The horse must have dropped to at least 65% of the BSP or lower in its last 4 races.
If a horse is a successful DOB, it will drop to 50% or more of the BSP. So a horse that starts at 10.0 will drop to 5.0 or less in running. By making sure a horse has dropped to at least 65% of the BSP in running in its last 4 races we ensure that the horse is at least getting close to Dobbing if not indeed actually dobbing very recently.
On the image below we have clicked the little arrow to the left of Presenting Junior who has a positive £70.50 DOBReturn profit. This opens up a drop down list of the horses form, in running high and low prices and BSP plus the percentage amount dropped to in all of its races.
As you can see, Presenting Junior has actually dropped to at least 65% of the BSP in running in 8 of its last 9 runs so would pass rule 2 on this occasion.
You can actually see that the horse has successfully Dobbed 5 times from the last 9 races as this is shown as 50% or less in the far right column for each runners form and is also highlighted for you in Green on the software.
3. Horse must have Dobbed at today’s Distance. With the varying differences in race distances at many courses you may want to allow half a furlong longer or shorter here but this rule is just to be sure the distance is not a problem for this horse in running and that it has Dobbed successfully before over today’s trip.
This is the same idea for rules 4 and 5 and just ensures that a horses run style may not be inconvenienced by other factors.
A horse up in class may struggle to run how it normally would in a lower grade and not be able to drop in price. Similarly a horse may struggle to run in its normal way on Soft ground but run confidently enough on Good or firmer fro its price to drop in running.
4. Horse must have Dobbed at today’s Class
5. Horse must have Dobbed on today’s Going.
6. No Novice races. These have proven to be poor races to trade in over the period.
7. The horse must have run within the last 45 days. Just to make sure that the horse is race fit and not struggling in running during the race.
8. The horse must have run more than 14 times. This makes sure that we have enough evidence and can make a decent claim on a horses past Dobbing form. Take a horse that has only run 5 or 6 times and you do not really have enough to go on, whether it has Dobbbed successfully in these races or not.
You can see the number of times a horse has run on the software image above by looking at the Races column.
9. Price nearest the off between 3.0-39.9. The evidence here is that horses too low or too high do not prove to be decent Dobbing propositions and whilst you may not be able to be exact about this close to the off, it should offer a guide to the prices that you back at to lay off at in running.
10. Maximum number of runners to be 16.
Whilst everyone likes a mechanical system, there are some rules above that can be adjusted to suit yourself and other factors you may want to check before trading.
I think sticking to the 10 rules will provide most profitable for you but a quick check on other factors such as the stall number in flat racing, a very inexperienced jockey and perhaps if the horse is drifting wildly in the betting as three examples.
You can download the Spreadsheet by clicking the link below.
The results of these filters is a healthy 61 points and a strike rate of just over 70% and annualised would be some 175 plus points.
There is much more to the software than just finding profitable Dobbing trades, so to find out more about the In Running Trading Tool and to get your copy today, then please hit the link below.
The cost of the software is just £67 for a full 12 month licence with all free upgrades and additions etc. during this period.