Last Time Out Rating System – 400 Points Profit In 4 Months
If you read anything about horse racing speed ratings, one thing that is said again and again, is that the last time out speed rating is the most valuable rating of all.
If you read anything about winning at horse racing betting, many experts will tell you that is almost impossible to win in the long term if you back short priced horses.
Bearing these two points in mind, I went to work on the Inform Racing System Builder to find a value based system that didn't back short priced horses combined with the Inform Racing last time out rating, (Lto 1).
And it didn't take me long, as literally the first set of criteria I put into the system builder, came up with a system idea that showed a huge profit of over 400 points to BSP, just since the start of the year, (just over three and a half months), betting in both the win and place markets.
1. Take any horse that is one of the top 3 rated in the Lto 1 column on the Inform Racing race cards. These are those highlighted in red. (Note: No substitutes are used here. If one of the top 3 is a non runner you don't take the next highest rated, if it's not in red you ignore it.)
2. Note any of these that are forecast at 10/1 or bigger using the betting forecast on the Inform Racing race cards.
3. Ensure that there are between 5 and 12 runners at the off. This is not the number of horses that are declared to run but the number that actually run in the race. This means that a race with 14 declared that has two non runners would qualify here as it has 12 running.
4. Ensure that the BSP at the off is between 6.0 and 30.0
5. Bet any qualifiers from all points above in the win and place market on Betfair. If betting the place, the win BSP must be between 6.0 and 30. You can also bet each way using normal bookmakers.
And that is it!
Following up over the next two days.
Running this for the Saturday and Sunday that followed, produced some stunning results with winners at amazing prices.
Saturday 20th. Fourteen qualifying bets.
Cowboy Soldier Won 20/1 (BSP 22.08), (Place price 5.11)
De Little Engine Won 14/1 (14.46), (4.0)
Ignatius Won 5/1 (7.35), (2.29)
Littleton Hall 2nd 16/1, (Place price 5.9)
Staged Engagement 2nd 14/1, (5.36)
Duke Of North 3rd 9/2, (2.26)
Sunday 21st. Nine qualifying bets.
Parallel World Won 16/1 (19.73), (5.7)
Win My Wings Won 7/1 (20.45), (2.65)
Sporting Boy 3rd 18/1, (4.87)
*On The Road 3rd 14/1, (3.5)
Global Melody 3rd 13/2, (2.84)
*The place bets follow Betfair place rules and in the race that On The Road ran in there were originally 9 runners but three came out, so whilst it came 3rd of 6, Betfair still paid three places for the race.
Profit for BSP over the two days after 5% commission:
Win bets: +55.12 points
Place bets: +17.81 points
Total: +72.93 points
System Builder Image
You can see an image of the system builder below for this set of rules, showing full results, stats and profits up to yesterday, Sunday 21st April.
You can see the profit to BSP is +281.53 points for the win and +132.34 for the place.
A total profit of 413.87
Click the image below to enlarge if you need to.
Whilst the strike rates for the win bets is not amazing at around 10%, the odds ranges and profits more than make up for this.
For the place bets there is a better than 30% strike rate and also an excellent profit shown too, due to the fact that the horses being backed are not usually the most fancied horses in the race.
Finding the days selections
For this you can use the Declarations Builder, which is free to use for subscribers, along with the System Builder, to find any possible selections for the day.
You can download the system rules file below and then load it into Declarations builder, where when you apply the rules it will show the list of the days bets in the results table.
When you load it into the Declarations Builder which has it's own link for subscribers at the top of the page when you open the System Builder, you will need to change a couple of things.
1. Make sure as always that you change the date to equal today's date as you are running this against the days declarations not past results.
2. Change the maximum number of runners from 12 to anything big, say 100, so that it includes all races with 5 or more runners declared. You can then see if there are 12 or more running nearer to the off, or if you use an automation programme such as Bet Angel or Fairbot, you can set the automation rules to only bet if there are between 5 and 12 running just before the off.
3. Also just to note, the rule for the BSP btween 6.0 and 30 will be ignored when using the Declarations Builder and this rule again can be automated if you use a third party bet placement programme like those mentioned above.
To get the rules for this system, just copy and paste all of the code below into a plain text file using Notepad or something similar. Save it somewhere you remember and then you can load it into the System and/or Declarations Builders.
System Builder and Declarations Builder
You can find out more about these two Inform Racing features on the links below. They really will be a game changer for you when used alone or alongside the speed ratings.
Create your own profitable betting systems and then use those rules to find today's system bets or you can use the Declarations Builder on its own to find horses running today that follow your own set of chosen rules.
There are also a number of videos you can view from the links at the top of each page.
Subscribing To Inform Racing
Inform Racing is the #1 resource for UK speed ratings and has been successfully online since 2003.
If you are a member of Inform Racing you can now follow this simple system everyday.
If you are not a current subscriber but would like to be, then just hit the link below now.