Noticeboard Info Extra
Latest Lto 1 System Info
I have had a few questions about this system in the past few days so I thought I would post some answers and some extra info here. This is referring to the system idea on this blog page here>>
1. We only started adding the forecast prices to the website in August 2017, so anyone looking before that date will get no results or incorrect results. If you use Year >> Equal >> 2017 you will only get results for between 01/08/2017 and 31/12/2017.
2. At present the system builder does not update itself until 3am. This is because it is quite an intensive operation on the system and to do so at other times could affect the normal running of the site in general. Therefore to get the absolute best results from this as well as the output of selections using the Declaration builder, it is best to wait until the morning of racing.
3. The system for this year alone has had a losing streak for winning bets of over 50, so you will need to plan for and accept these losing runs but the strike rate for the place bets is consistent at around 30% and these should keep a bank ticking over until the next set of winners. Up to the end of April 22nd, there was total profit of over 433 points for win and place bets.
4. Remember when you run the rules against the Declarations builder you will need to increase the max number of runners from 12 to say 100 so that all races with 5 runners or more are included. You then need to only bet on these if the race has between 5 and 12 at the off and the BSP has the correct price range. You can adjust these to suit yourself but if you want to follow the system correctly, stick to the rules as they are.
5. You can play around with the rules for this and see if you can improve the results using categories like days since run, lengths beaten last time out or up/down in class for example.
Average Rating Rank and place betting only
For example, using the average rating rank top 3 instead of the Lto 1 rating rank top 3 and the same other rules also gives a very consistent profit and strike rate for place betting on Betfair.
2017 (August 1st to December 31st): +34.64 pts and 30% strike rate.
2018: +146.54 pts and a 30% strike rate.
2019 (up to April 22nd): +140.87 pts and a 33% strike rate.
You can then play around with the rules, maybe even try using a range of BSP place prices instead of winning BSP prices.
Please remember, I try to give out good ideas but nothing I provide is set it stone. All system ideas can be manipulated and played around with and I am sure lots of people will get much better results than even these with a little time and effort on the system builder.
This could be an excellent system to use with the 80/20 staking plan. Place 80% of the stake on the place and 20% on the win. So for a £10 stake, £8 on the place and £2 on the win.