Place Betting System using the Speed Ratings
As you know I am always looking for new system ideas when using the speed ratings that I can share with subscribers and another simple, yet so far effective idea came to me during the racing last Saturday afternoon, which has proved a profitable place betting system using the speed ratings.
I started playing around with the rules of System 4, one of a number of systems that subscribers receive and one of the most popular going on the feedback and I began looking to find a high strike rate of horses that would place only.
As with a lot of my ideas, the rules are not mechanical in any way and they also evolve during use, based on the results that I get, but overall and from a small sample over a few days of betting the results have been positive.
Place Betting – Starting Rules
Simple enough to follow and from the filters that I have added, I am looking at Handicap races with 12 or less runners and from these I look at the Lto (Last Time Out Column), giving the latest rating for each runner.
Taking all of the those highlighted as top 3 horses in the Lto column, I am looking for the horse who finished in the worst position last time that is also below 3.00 in the Betfair place market close to the off.
If the horse with the worst finishing position is 3.0 or bigger then look for the next worst placed horse from those highlighted in the Lto column down to those who finished second. I am not a fan of backing horses who won last time out so I stop at any that finished second – you may decide to go down to last time out winners if you wish.
I have added two screenshots below of my Betfair fun account that I use to test ideas, showing all of the bets that I placed. As you will see I only had a few bets on Saturday and Sunday afternoon but a good number of bets on Monday (yesterday).
I started betting using £20 stakes, increasing this to £30 from the last race at Salisbury into the evening racing at Chelmsford and you can see that the profit made is fairly healthy.
(Please click any images to enlarge them.)
I did initially think that it would be wise to ignore horses that had had a long lay off but there have been some successful bets on horses that have been rested for a while so I am not too concerned about this at present.
Notes on the above results.
The successful bet in the 6.00 at Chepstow was a National Hunt Flat Race not a Hanidicap and whilst the horse Poetic Rhythm actually won at 8/1, I think keeping to handicaps would be more sensible as there is more reliable form to go by.
(Incidentally, I didn’t back qualifier Pearl Acclaim in the 7.55 Chelmsford on Monday evening and this came second at a similar place price to Poetic Rhtyhm so the profit and loss shown would be about the same.)
I had a cheeky £2 win and place bet on a big outsider in the 4.20 Goodwood on Saturday which lost and this is shown on the results above.
I did back Richie McCaw in an 18 runner handicap on Saturday and despite this success, now believe that restricting it to races of just 12 or less will ensure a better strike rate and with the horse placing at 2.06 would mean a smaller profit made on that shown of about £20.
I could have a few more place betting bets but the odds on the selections place prices were too short for me.
From the results so far, two horses that lost had SP’s of 10/1 and 9/1 and were also both 5th favourite in the betting. My initial thought was for horses to be in the first three of the betting but backed these as the place prices were under 3.0.
The majority of horses have been at 6/1 or less but three other successful horses had SP’s of 7/1, 7/1 and 8/1. Two of these were 4th favourite in the betting, one at 7/1 was 5th, so it is really down to you how you play this regarding the odds and how fancied a horse actually is.
I think if you were being strict you could say it must be one of the first three in the betting and with a maximum of 12 runners you would expect the place price to be under 3.0.
Lots of us like to relax the rules a little however and have a few more bets, all I can say is that from this small sample, ignoring the position of the horse in the betting would not have made much difference.
Sometimes you get a gut feeling about a horse and backing it when you think you shouldn’t will result in a loss the majority of the time!
My Final Rules to Follow – Place Betting Only
Handicap races only.
12 runners maximum. A race can have more runners declared but at the off it must only have 12 at the most.
Races where Betfair are paying 3 places for a place, so no races where only 7 or less were declared.
Take the horse with the worst finishing position last time out from all those highlighted as top rated in the Lto column.
Selections must be less than 3.0 in the Betfair place market close to the off .
If it is over 3.0 then ignore this horse and look at the horse with the next worst finishing position from all those highlighted as top rated in the Lto column.
A minimum price? Personally I think you should try and get at least 1.7 otherwise you will be risking too much for too little reward. From all my results there has only been one I backed at under 1.7, it was 1.63 and it came 5th.
An example from yesterday
This a handicap race for 10 runners and looking at the Lto column you can see that there are four horses highlighted (in purple and in Bold type) as top or joint top rated. Cacia (84), Unsuspected Girl (79), East Coast Lady (79) and All The Rage (75).
You do not look at the highest rated first, you look at all of the horses and hover over the Lto rating to get the finishing position for that run. From these four horses, Cacia finished 1st, Unsuspected Girl and East Coast Lady both finished 3rd and All The Rage finished 2nd.
With two horses showing the same worst position of 3rd, you look at the betting and see that East Coast Lady was over 3.0 for a place, in fact it went off at 4.0 whilst Unsuspected Girl went of at 2.9, the price I got just before the off.
Below is how it looks when you hover over each rating, giving you the finishing position plus much more detail about any particular rating and run. Here it shows the details for Unsuspected Girl last time out at Kempton where the rating was 79 and finishing position was 3rd.
Place Betting, Back to Win or Each Way?
Not counting the horse in the NHFlat race or the one in the 18 runner handicap race, there were 21 selections in all, with 16 of them winning or placed.
This gives an excellent 76% strike rate for coming 1st, 2nd or 3rd and an average place price of 2.3 and as you can see from my Betfair account I made over £300 profit to mainly £20, then £30 stakes, so a good return and success – thus far.
From the 21 selections there were actually 6 winners giving a 29% strike rate and a profit to BSP before commission of 23.14 pts, over £460 to £20 stakes.
You may wish to back these selections to win or each way but I was looking for a place betting idea and with the high strike rate so far would be happy enough sticking to this plan for now.
Results Update 19/04/2017
From the 1st March to today’s date, there has been a profit made of +25.91 points and if you just place the win part of the bet, this increases to +40.86 points.
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