Speed Ratings Class Pars

In this post we are looking at speed ratings class pars and then I go through a recent six race card explaining just what to look for and what to ignore.

Every race on the Inform Racing race cards, has a par figure or average winning speed rating and this is the rating required to win a race of that type, class and age group and finding those not up to the par figure will help to narrow down the field and find those selections with the best chance of winning the race.

Determining if a horse has previously or recently raced to the par figure will immediately eliminate those that cannot win, whereas those that have can be placed on your shortlist.

All par ratings are shown on a link below the card and most are also on the header of each race card too, where you will see something like: Class Par: Par 77 H 84

This means that the average winning speed rating (Par 77), for this race type/age group/class is 77 and H 84 means the highest ever speed rating for this race type/age group/class is 84.

In most races, any horse with a Master rating of less than the par of 77 here, can be ignored. If the horse is forecast at a short price however you may want to check why that may be because the horse could be stepping up in trip for the first time or be dropping down in class dramatically.

Also if a horse has a Master rating of less than 77 but is still one of the top 3 rated horses, highlighted on the cards in red, it will mean the horse still has a chance in what is more than likely a poor race overall, so probably one to avoid.

From a backing point of view, if you have a horse whose Master rating is higher than the H rating on the card, you will have an opportunity for a solid bet and a large percentage of winners will be found.


It is also worthwhile looking at the Lto rating and Average rating, (this is the average rating from the last three runs), because a horse that has a rating from it's last run or recent runs that is equal to or better than the the par for the race has to be shortlisted.

Many professional punters use speed figures to quickly identify the real contenders in a race and using par figures in this way will often eliminate false favourites and short priced runners from the reckoning that the general public will always over bet.

This will leave opportunities to back one or two horses in a race at good prices that have run to the par figure or better, that are being ignored by the vast majority who don't have the information that we do using the speed ratings.

Hopefully you will soon see how just looking at these simple rating figures can often tell you enough about a horses chance without the need to spend hours trawling through the form.

It has been said a number of times before that the Inform Racing cards are some of the simplest around because they highlight the contenders just by looking at the par figures and top 3 rated horses in each column which are highlighted in red.

Plumptons six race card.

If we take the six races yesterday at Plumpton, you can see how the par figures can be used to highlight a winner or two from a shortlist for each race.

On the race card examples below you can see the class par and H, (Highest par rating), on the right hand end on third row down on the grey header. You can also see the result on the fourth column of the header with the winner in red.

2.15 Plumpton
Class Par 81  H 92

The first race had a top rated horse, Calva D'Auge with a Master rating of 83, Lto Rating of 83 and Average rating 84, all higher than the class par for the race of 81.

The fact that it was also clear of the forecast favourite, Fraser Island on all ratings, it was surely the horse to beat and was probably more of a 1/4 shot than the 5/6 price it went off at.

As you can also see in this race, the second rated horse on all three ratings came second at 13/8 and the third top rated horse on all ratings came third at 50/1.

2.45 Plumpton
Class Par 82  H 87

Two horses in the second race had a Master rating over the par of 82 and equal to or greater than the highest ever for this race type, class and age group of 87.

Only Colorado Doc however had an average rating of better than the par, meaning the horse had not only been running very well recently, but had been doing so mostly better than the par for this race.

Perhaps the fact that Clorado Doc was going up in class, made him forecast as the outsider of the four runners initially at 4/1 but the ratings were spot on as he won comfortably by 15 lengths at a nice enough SP of 3/1.

3.15 Plumpton
Class Par 78  H 88

Not too much happening in the third race with four horses having a Master rating over the class par and no horses with an average over this rating either.

Two possible bets may have been Chilli Factor having an Lto of 85, although the horse had not run for 1100 days, whilst Sirop De Menthe had an Lto rating of 80 which were both over the par for the race of 78.

You can see that Sirop De Menthe was forecast at 14/1 and perhaps an each way opportunity initially and he did in fact come second after being backed in to 7/1 and was only beaten by three quarters of a length.

3.45 Plumpton
Class Par 76  H 89

Not sure why the result isn't showing on this card below but the winner was Finnegan's Garden at 4/1. A line through the top horse on the card shows a non runner.

As you can see, Finnegan's Garden is the only horse in the race after the forecast favoutite was taken out, with a Master, Lto and Average rating, all higher than the par for the race of 76 and it won the race easily by 24 lengths.

It is worth looking at the race favourite above, Le Coeur Net who was unplaced at 9/4.

The second to last race for this horse rated 79 where the horse won a Class 3 race worth £9,747 to the winner, whislt Finnegan's Garden won last time out, rating 86 in a Class 4 race worth only £4,289 to the winner.

Despite the class difference between these two races, the ratings are very different and in favour of the horse that ran in a lower class. Many people would automatically take a Class 3 race over a Class 4 race and plump for the one that won the better race but the ratings tell a different story in this case.

The ratings are calculated the same for all classes of race and will level all of the form for you in one simple to use figure. This is where you can gain value in your prices, knowing a horse has run a better speed figure than another, even if the rating was acheived in a lower class of race.

4.15 Plumpton
Class Par 78  H 88

Another race with nothing standing out too much with four horses having a Master rating over the par but no Lto or Average ratings over the par.

The winner and runner up were the top two in the M+A rating column but if nothing stands out, there is no need to bet in every race just for the sake of it.

4.15 Plumpton
Class Par 75  H 86

The final race again had no stand out ratings compared to the par ratings for the race, with three horses having a Master rating better than the par but no Lto or Average ratings at this level.

If forced into a bet I would probably have gone for Montys Angel as he had a Master rating that was close to the highest ever for the race type and class, although this was acheived 218 days ago. It also had the best rating last time out, albeit very poor at 57.

He was also down in class and had been dropped three pounds since it's last race and whilst he did finish third at 10/1, there were only seven runners so not quite good enough for an each way payout. 

Conclusion

As you can see, the class pars will help you narrow down a race and pinpoint one or two horses that are really in with a chance.

By having these class pars, we know what sort of rating figure will win any particular race type, class and age group and is a very simple way of looking at a race without necessarily needing to trawl through all of the form. 

If one speed figure is bigger, then that horse should be considered a better horse and that levels all form and class, unlike any other ratings available today.

With speed ratings you can just look at a simple number that represents the quality of the orse and by comparing these to the class pars available, make your own informed and positive decisions.


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Ian Welch

Creator and owner of Inform Racing.com since 2003, I have over 30 years of racing and betting experience to share. Speed ratings are my main passion whilst updating the website and writing the odd blog post keeps me busy and hopefully other users well informed.

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