System Tests – Updated Results

Previous System Idea – Update

This system idea that I wrote about in June, concerned the last time out rating (Lto rating), looking at horses that finished 2nd or 3rd in their previous race, on the post below.

http://informracing-blog.com/speed-rating-last-time-out

Overall this idea was making a huge loss for just over the two weeks I have been monitoring it, also using the 70/30 staking plan, until I filtered the results by the BSP price for the win.

Taking just those that started out at under 4.0 for the win, provided just 35 selective bets, 14 wins (40%) and a 10.86 point profit for the win and a just better than break even profit of 1.96 points for the place from 23 wins (65.71%), which is fair as the place price for these has only once been above 2.0.

The 40% strike rate for the win here does catch the eye and again even more so when you consider there was a losing run of 10 in the middle of the test, that lasted nearly a full week of bets!

Whether you would decide to back to win, each way or 70/30, 80/20, having the place bets does keep you a little more sane as from these ten losing bets, 5 of them were placed which meant at least a small return or money back which is something.

The adventurous would probably rightly just stick to the win bets with a decent starting bank and ride out the losing runs. It just depends what type of punter you are.

For those of you who prefer to place lay bets, then there is something here for you also, as laying all those selections with a BSP of 4.0 or more for the win, would have made a 16.53 point profit for laying the win and a 14.77 point profit laying the place.

Using £3 lay stakes for the win and £7 lay stakes for the place, has made over £150 in two weeks or so of this current test I am running.

The rules for this system test are shown at the top of the results sheet.

In Summary

I am well aware that we have barely tested these system but with results being so positive early on, I thought many subscribers would like to follow this idea.

You may choose to follow this by paper trading or small stakes to begin with it is up to you. Just bear in mind when you take a look at the results below, there have been some rather nasty losing runs, so you may need to keep your nerve!

I am always looking for something simple that can make even three or four points profit in a week, something that continues to increase the overall profit over time, so it will be interesting to see how this continues to perform.

Results

You can download the results on the link below. Please note it is copied in a Bitmap format, which is like taking a picture of the excel sheet I am using and copying it onto another excel sheet, so you will not be able to manipulate the data unfortunately.

For Test, the Lto rating idea,  you can see I have results for both backing and laying the selections, (shown on the right) and the first set of results shows all those with a win BSP of 4.0 or more.

As you can see this provides a massive loss if backing however a decent profit if laying instead. Next down the sheet are just those that started at 10.0 or over in the win market, which again shows a loss if backing, but a profit if laying.

Finally I have filtered out all of those that started at under 4.0 for the win (shown in green) and this is what I am using for the proper system test rules. Here you can see that a small but steady profit has been made and hopefully will continue to do so.

To download the results, updated on December 17th, please click the link below.

lto-test-results

 

 

Ian Welch

Creator and owner of Inform Racing.com since 2003, I have over 30 years of racing and betting experience to share. Speed ratings are my main passion whilst updating the website and writing the odd blog post keeps me busy and hopefully other users well informed.

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