Ten Year Trends – The Lanzarote Hurdle
In many top class races that are run year after year, it is possible to look back at past winners to get a clue as to what may win the running of the same race this year.
Usually these races are run on the same weekend of each year, so horses have often been readied by their trainers in the same way as in previous years and their prep races will have been the same if not similar as in previous years too.
This means that a horse with a similar profile is worth looking at in future renewals.
Races such The Derby, The Grand National, The Chester Cup, The Old Newton Cup and The Hennessy Gold Cup are just a few of the famous old races that have been run numerous times before, some going back decades if not more.
One being run today at Kempton is the Lanzarote Hurdle, named after the horse Lanzarote who won the Champion Hurdle in 1974 and that had a good record at Kempton.
In 2007 the race was extended to 2m 5f and therefore it is possible to look back at the past 10 years results to see if we can spot the likely winner today.
I have to thank subscriber Jerry for giving me the heads up on this race and these stats today.
Inform Racing System Builder
The task of looking back at past races is made a little easier by using the Inform Racing System Builder.
This allows you to analyse past racing results to find positive, systematic ideas as well previous winning profiles, such as with the Lanzarote Hurdle race today.
If you look at the image below, you can see that we are looking back at the last 10 years data, so 2009 onwards, however there was actually no running of the Lanzarote Hurdle in 2009 due to a frozen track, so there can only be 9 winners up to 2018.
As well as using the system builder to create your own, winning betting systems, you can also search through past race titles too, as we have here by using the description 'contains' and the word Lanzarote.
This means the system builder will search the database for all previous races since 2009 that had the word Lanzarote in the race title.
Just to narrow this down and ensure I got the right race, I have also included the rules that the race must have been a Hurdle race (HDL), that was also run at Kempton.
(Click the image below to enlarge)
When I applied just those rules it gave me every runner in this race since 2009 (or actually 2010), which is 133, as well as show all 9 winners too.
Backing all 133 runners would have shown a loss to SP of over 70 points so we want to narrow down the number of bets that we would have had, whilst at the same time trying to find a high percentage of the 9 previous winners.
Adding some filters
I then played around with the system builder to try and filter out a number of the previous losing bets from the past running's, a task that is super simple to do, by just adding and removing different rules and changing the values of these rules, then applying them to see the results.
Note: You do also get a full list of horses and prices etc. in the results below the Summary which you can then download to excel and look at in detail further.
As you can see above, (click to enlarge if necessary), I came up with 3 rules that now limit the previous run of a horse to have been within the last 60 days, that the SP should be below 10/1 and that the horse has to be in the top 3 of the Inform Racing Master column.
This last rule is very important as you would have had 42 bets in total before filtering by the Master ratings but only 17 after this.
Note: This simple, yet complex in it's own way, set of rules run over ten years of past racing form, took less than 1 second to run and return the full set of results, so checking past stats can be done in no time at all with the Inform Racing system builder.
You can also see in the Summary below the software, that this particular trend 'system' run on the the Lanzarote Hurdle, gave 8 out of the 9 winners and a profit to SP of over 35 points.
Therefore, going by these ten year trends you can see that the winner is most likely to:
1. Have run within the last 60 days
2. Have an SP of less than 10/1
3. Be one of the top 3 rated in the Inform Racing Master Column
So what about today's race?
Well from the top 3 rated in the Master column, there are only two that have run within the last 60 days and only one of these looks likely to go off below 10/1 going by the current prices. and that horse is Doux Pretender.
As you can see above, Doux Pretender, is in the top 3 rated of the Master column with 88, last ran 28 days ago and is currently best priced at 7/1.
The horse is also trained by Nicky Henderson, who has won this race three times previously, including in 2013 and at last years renewal with William Henry, so all in all the horse looks a very decent proposition going on what we now know.
To add a little more encouragement to this selection, Doux Pretender has also won 2/3 when going right handed as it is today at Kempton.
He was only beaten 7 lengths at Cheltenham last time out, (left handed track), when upped in trip to 3 miles after previously winning at Ascot over 2m 6f and is dropped back to 2m 5f for this race today.
Star of Lanka is also a qualifier on ratings and days since last run and is hovering around the best price of 12/1 at present so it may be worth a small saver bet on this horse depending on the price, or back them both if the price drops nearer the off.
Download the 10 year trends rules for this race today.
If you are a subscriber to Inform Racing and the System Builder, you can download the text file rules for this race, upload them to the software and take a look at the results for yourself.
Right click the button below and then click Save link as... and save it to your computer somewhere safe so you can find it again.
And don't forget you can use the Race Title >> Contains >> (Type text here such as Grand National, Lanzarote etc.), at any time in the system builder to look back at lots of past races.
You can also search for Race Title >> Contains >> Maiden (or Claiming, or Apprentice etc.), to filter out many other different types of race too.
As well as use the system builder every day for literally thousands of other form, Trainer, Jockey and rating combinations as well, to analyse past racing results and create your own systematic ideas.
Inform Racing and the System Builder
To read more about the Inform Racing system builder, click here >>
To sign up to Inform Racing and access the system builder, click here >>
To download 12 systems already created for the system builder that made over 940 points profit in 2018, click here >>
(You will need a subscription to Inform Racing to use the 12 files above)