Ten Year Trends – A Simple 11/1 Winner
In many top class races that are run year after year, it is possible to look back at past winners to get a clue as to what may win the running of the same race this year.
Usually these races are run on the same weekend of each year, so horses have often been readied by their trainers in the same way as in previous years and their prep races will have been the same if not similar as in previous years too.
This means that a horse with a similar profile is worth looking at in future renewals.
Races such The Derby, The Grand National, The Chester Cup, The Old Newton Cup and The Hennessy Gold Cup are just a few of the famous old races that have been run numerous times before, some going back decades if not more, however there are many lesser know races being run all year round that can be used, as long as the race has been going for between five to ten years or more.
One being run today at Newbury is the Greatwood Gold Cup, although in 2009 the same race was called the totesport.com Gold Cup run over the same distance as today of 2m 4f.
Inform Racing System Builder
The task of looking back at past races is made far easier by using the Inform Racing System Builder.
This allows you to analyse past racing results to find positive, systematic ideas as well previous winning profiles, such as with the Greatwood Gold Cup and other distinctive races run throughout the Year.
Using the category 'Race Title' and the value 'Contains', you can type in the race that you want to research and this means the system builder will search the database for all previous races since 2009 that in this case, had the words 'Greatwood Gold Cup' in the race title.
Just to narrow this down and ensure you get the right race, you may want to select the course name as well as the month of the year that the race is being run. It is possible there was or is another race with the same name as your chosen race at another course and you don't want to confuse the stats.
Adding Your Filters
It is at this point you need to start searching the database for categories that have had an impact on the winner of this or other races in the past. There are over 80 different categories plus sub-categories to choose from, all of which you can see on the link below.
Every time you add a different category and value for that category, you can apply the rules and see what the strike rate and profit and loss is and then play around with the system builder to try and filter out a number of the previous losing bets from the past running's.
This is a task that is super simple to do, by just adding and removing different rules and changing the values of these rules, over and over to see the results.
Note: You also get a full list of horses and prices etc. in the results below the Summary each time you apply the rules and these can be downloaded into excel to look at in further detail.
My Final System Rules
(Click the image below to enlarge in a new window).
As you can see on the image, I came up with just four simple rules which would have given you a profit from this race alone over the last 10 years of over 60 points to BSP, after 5% commission, with a strike rate of 45% or 5 winners from just 11 selections.
The four rules here are:
Trainer Name = Paul Nicholls
SP of the horse must be less that 20/1
The horse must have run within the last 45 days
The horse must not have won last time out
You can see all winners highlighted in blue on the list of results and placed horses are highlighted in red.
Note: This simple, yet complex in it's own way, set of rules run over ten years of past racing form, took just 1.5 seconds to run and return the full set of results, so checking past stats can be done in no time at all with the Inform Racing system builder.
And as I said before, you can change any of the values and re-run the system without having to go back and start again or re-add the category, it can all be done 'on the fly' and is a very simple process indeed.
So what about today's race?
There were two possible qualifiers going by the rules I decided on and they were Warriors Tale and San Benedeto and all you need to do if you are using a price range, is check the price of selections before you place the bet.
And what about the result?
In this instance both horses qualified on price and San Benedeto ran out a comfortable 2.25 lengths winner at 11/1 with a BSP of 15.18.
I ask you, just how long would it take you to go back through the past results of this race to find the filters that the system builder took? Hours at least, possibly days and it would be not a lot of fun either!
With San Benedeto winning this race, it now gives this set of rules a 54% strike rate and 72.80 profit to BSP in the Greatwood Gold Cup since 2009 and you will be able to do your own ten year trends over hundreds of races throughout the year.
Using the Declarations Builder
Once you have your set of rules, you can save them to your computer and then re-run them again using the Declarations Builder.
All you need to do is upload the rules, change the date to today's date and apply the rules against the days declarations instead of all past results and you will get any selections that are running today.
Of course you can use the declarations builder on all system rules, not just this 10 year trend idea, or you can use it without already having a system, just choosing categories that you want to check for today's runners.
You can see a video of how to do this on this link below.
Ten Year Trends to Date
It was subscriber Jerry I have to thank for getting me started with these ten year trends and now between us we have had 4 winners from 8 selections in the past few weeks or so and on some races you may not think to consider.
Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton - Doux Pretender Lost
Betfair Ascot Chase at Ascot - Cyrname Won 3/1
Devon National at Exeter - Dawson City Won 6/1, Chic Name and Aurillac Lost
Spring Cup at Lingfield - Fanaar Won 10/11
Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury - San Benedeto Won 11/1, Warriors Tale Lost
Inform Racing and the System Builder
To read more about the Inform Racing system builder, click here >>
To sign up to Inform Racing and access the system builder, click here >>
To download 12 systems already created for the system builder that made over 940 points profit in 2018, click here >>
(You will need a subscription to Inform Racing to use the 12 files above)