Top Rated Fancied Horses
In my recent posts I have been looking at testing different ways of using the ratings to find winning angles and this has been made much easier to do with the recently updated Historical Meetings function, that provides an interactive way of checking past ratings and results.
Last week, I thought I would see how things worked out if I combined the ratings with the starting prices to see if I could see any promising results and settled upon the following rules.
- Handicap races only, both flat and jumps.
- Sort the ratings by the M+A column (Master rating + Average rating).
- Note down all top rated horses in the M+A column that started at 7/2 or less.
- If the top rated horse in the M+A column was a non runner, I ignored the race.
- If joint top rated and both at 7/2 or less, back both.
This was just an idea out of the blue that I decided to test but there are many combinations you can try yourself. Combing the ratings with starting prices is just an example but now all past results card columns can be sorted highest to lowest and the pop up form boxes also now show, unlike the previous static format.
Ignoring the race if the top rated horse was a non runner means that, were the idea to prove profitable and be followed by others, everyone could find the same selections first thing in the morning before racing.
Results from September 1st 2017 to Oct 12th 2017 (42 days).
Strike Rate: 34%
Profit to SP: +42.13
Overall an excellent set of results and a decent profit to boot, all from just a simple idea I came up with one morning. There would also be an improvement of between 5% and 10% to the profits betting on Betfair.
All of these results can be fully checked by users accessing the Historical Meetings feature on the Meetings page.
Checking back all race results for Handicap races ran in the same period, all runners starting at 7/2 or less still hit a decent 29% winning strike rate but the profit was just 1.17 points. I was actually quite surprised there was even a profit backing these blindly but an ROI of just 0.44% doesn’t come close that of the 16% shown in my results, or of course the overall profit.
Reason of the System
The M+A column is certainly one favoured by many subscribers and does produce a large number of winners at all prices, not just 7/2 or below. By combining these top rated horses with those supposedly fancied due to the price they start off at, I was hoping that some sort of profit could be made, or at least better that could be made by backing favourite horses blindly.
Happily it has proven to be the case and one I would expect to continue due to the high strike rate of the M+A column top rate horses and those starting at 7/2 or less.
Below you can see a result from a Handicap Hurdle at Fontwell on October 7th. The cards have been sorted by the M+A column and Dashing Oscar is the top rated at 169.
To the far right you can see that the horse won (Pos) and had an SP of 5/2.
Whilst I am delighted that the result of this test provided an excellent profit, I am also trying to show how you can filter the ratings very easily to come up with different ideas and angles.
After testing a few days of results using this idea, I wished I had started looking for top rated horses at 11/2 or less as it seemed there were a lot of winners at these prices, plus I have no idea on how non handicap races would pan out.
Other filters just on this idea, could be looking at horses that are clear top rated by say 5 or more, number of runners in the race, class of race or more. You could even check the horses past form in detail using the pop up boxes once you have a selection.
I believe that subscriber Mike, who you can read about on the links below, uses the M+A as his starting point and it certainly hasn’t done him any harm. He has clearly found a methodical approach that combines the ratings with other factors and is something anyone can do very easily using the speed ratings and Historical Meetings feature.