Comments on: Betting to win

By: Ian Welch

Ian Welch — Sun, 12 Feb 2017 14:14:01 +0000

In reply to DaveS. Thanks for posting this Dave. 5/1 for a 6/5 shot is fantastic and would cover a number of losing bets I think. Especially if you back it to win also. I suppose it is like an each way bet. Back to win by a distance and back to win by whatever. Great result for you and explanation. Thanks again.

By: DaveS

DaveS — Tue, 31 Jan 2017 17:41:04 +0000

Thought I’d throw a quicky in here for everyone to consider when using speed ratings, since I think this could really pay some serious dividends.

I use Skybet and they’ve started offering odds on a horse (the favourite) winning by X number of lengths.

I just bet £45 on Fast Landing to win by 2.5 lengths or more and won £270 inc stakes in return since I got 5-1 on that for a horse that was 6-5 to win.

I also had £45 on the win and got £99 for that too.

6-5 to win or 5-1 for the same horse with not that big a winning margin…

Why did I choose it?

Sorting by LTO (since it’s over 7 furlongs) it was on 71 which it scored here at Wolv last time.

2nd was Havelock on 63, but it hasn’t run for 248 days and it also has never run here.

Apart from that the only other one with a run was Franks Legacy on 58 over 5F Southwell.

To me the chances of Fast landing winning were almost written in stone, with a +8 LTO and at this course, the chances of it winning by 2.5 lengths seemed pretty much nailed on, and at 5-1 why the heck wouldn’t you lump your house on it?

Thanks to Ian – yet again – I’ve just won (inc the win bet) £270 = brillint and couldn’t have done it without the speed ratings.

With the speed ratings I was 99.9% sure it would win by 2.5 lengths or more.

Maybe this is a little way to sometimes squeeze a lot more out of the horses?

THANKS IAN!

By: DaveS

DaveS — Sat, 28 Jan 2017 22:59:22 +0000

In reply to Andrew Dagnall.

I agree with this entirely. I was having great success, lost the plot a bit and ended up not doing what had been working well before.

So I took some time out, came back to it with fresh eyes and I think I’m back on track now – won £250 today from those kinds of exotic bets thanks to Ian and his speed ratings.

I also now write it all down in a book – my selections, why I selected them, and the results – makes it dead easy to identify patterns and see what is working best.

If my “system” keeps on working I’ll pass it on to Ian so other people can use it as well.

By: mark

mark — Wed, 25 Jan 2017 12:56:30 +0000

Betting with value in my opinion is the only real way to win long-term. But working out the probability of something winning reasonably accurately and then only getting involved when the odds are bigger…..well thats a different matter! And i believe that the people who achieve this consistently are the 2 percenters !

By: Andrew Dagnall

Andrew Dagnall — Wed, 25 Jan 2017 12:01:56 +0000

Very good article and I agree that it should be kept simple and don’t tinker with a successful strategy because before you know it, you’ll have lost sight of what made it successful in the first place.

My mantra whether testing or live is to keep a record, so you know whether you are actually making a profit and more importantly when you go through that losing run which happens to everybody and you start to lose confidence in your system, you can refer back to the previous occasion and see that you came through it.