Creating Your Own Betting Tissue Prices
For a long time now, professional gamblers have been creating their own betting tissue, or betting forecast, to compare with the actual forecast and the prices available at the off, in the pursuit of finding horses that they believe have been overpriced by the bookies.
The bookmakers have some of the keenest form students on their books as well as numerous 'ears to the ground', listening out for any valuable information on how horses are likely to run, so that they can price up a race to make money.
It is incredible how accurate they are on the majority of races over the year, however, they can and do make mistakes and this is where you can pounce, when you find a horse that you think is much larger than the bookies have it priced up at.
Clearly the bookies do have a network of people who hear the whispers about the current well being of a horse more than we ever could, but if you went through a race just looking at the bare form of each horse, it is likely that you would come up with the first three favourites that the bookmakers will have.
How to give yourself an edge
So what you need to do, is find an alternative method of ranking the runners and coming up with a value or price, for the chance of each horse to win.
Using the bare form is fine, but you need to delve a little deeper into the form or use another method, a method that the bookmakers don't use, so you are working on different form criteria to them all of the time.
Ratings and in particular our speed ratings, are one way of looking at a race, where you can rank and/or rate each runner, depending on the ratings themselves and end up with a price for each one depending on it's chance, compared to the other runners in the field.
A very simple way could be to say that the horse with the highest Master rating should be favourite, the next highest second favourite and so on.
However, you probably need a little more information than just one rating and so we have created a spreadsheet that you can use, to combine any of the ratings from Inform Racing, and automatically calculate the chance of each horse, turn this chance into odds and then compare your odds with the betting forecast and the race odds themselves.
The Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool
The spreadsheet is free to download for all subscribers, just log in to find the link for this.
You will also need to be a subscriber as the data required for the spreadsheet itself, is copied from our daily excel download which contains all of the information you will need and is automatically placed where it is required before you make any calculations, by the click of one button.
Once you open the sheet with today's races on, you can play around with which ratings you want to use and how you want to calculate that data to get your tissue prices.
First day of use and an 11/1 winner.
I started using the betting tissue tool yesterday and the second all age handicap race of the day came up with two horses which looked overpriced and in with a chance in the 3.00 Redcar.
There were four horses that were actually overpriced going by my settings but two were both over 33/1 at the off so were dismissed as not really being horses that could actually win.
Of the other two in this race however, Oriental Lilly went on to win at 11/1, with a BSP of 13.54 (effectively 12.54), starting at nearly two betting points above my minimum required odds of 10.84.
You do need to consider one or two things when creating your betting tissue, as it would be very easy to just back everything that you find is bigger than your calculations say it should be and I will go through my ideas of what horses you may want to look for later on in this post.
There is a video I have uploaded to You Tube on a link at the bottom of this post, which goes through exactly how to set up and run the betting tissue tool but just take a look at the image below to see the results for the Redcar race above and how we are using the data to create our own tissue prices.
Also you will also see that I am trying to get at least 1.5 times my tissue price before considering a bet but this 1.5 can be changed by you to any figure on the spreadsheet.
(You can click all images to enlarge them).
All of the information is explained on the video but essentially you can see the four ratings I have chosen to use, the tissue price this all creates for each race, the minimum odds required for a bet on each runner and the two horses in red and bold type that I considered to be in with a real chance - Saisons D'Or and Oriental Lily.
Please also note, I chose to use four ratings yesterday which were the Avg rating, the Lto1 rating, the M+A rating and the Master rating.
For me on this very early test I came up with some pretty fair results but nothing is set in stone and you can choose any number and any combination of ratings that you want to.
The good thing is, you can play around with this all day and see how results compare with all of you different combinations.
So how best to use the tissue prices when you have them?
You may be able to see on the image above that you can add other form criteria to the right of the calculations and I chose to view the age of each runner and the race class.
This means that you can see when a race is a race for just two year olds, just three year olds or races for horses of all ages.
For me I would suggest concentrating on all age races as there are more ratings in general to go on and the form generally stands up well in these types of races.
Once you start using the betting tissue tool you can try all sorts of combinations of ratings and race types and you may find that races of a better class, races of shorter or longer distances, or whatever, seem to give you better results.
Once you have your tissue prices, as I said before, it would be very easy to just back everything that is bigger than your minimum required price and I am sure you would end up with some superb winners but it may be better to concentrate on horses that according to the actual betting and/or your own betting tissue, are considered to really have a chance of winning.
50/1 winner yesterday
There was a horse that won yesterday at Newcastle, that had a minimum required price of just around 9/1 yet went of and won at 50/1 with a BSP of 161.18!
I didn't back this horse because of the huge price but it was third favourite on my tissue price. It was also a race for just two year olds so I (possibly foolishly) ignored this one but looking at the days racing overall, I think it may be worth concentrating on horses that are one of the first five or so in your tissue price.
That is not the forecast price, or the price at the off, it is your list of tissue prices. So you are saying that you believe in your own tissue prices you have created and as we know, the majority of winners come from the first five or so in the betting.
You may want to say you will only look at horses that are 10/1 or less on your betting tissue perhaps and if you can then beat your minimum required price, it will give you a good chance of getting much more value on all of your bets and the real chance of making a profit.
Others races to consider or omit
You will find that a lot of competitive races or races with a lot of runners will be a no show because the horses all have decent ratings and therefore the odds show many horses at shortish prices on the tissue, so none of the first five or so in the betting come anywhere near beating your minimum required price.
However this is fine as it means you will only be betting in races where you think you have an edge on the odds and if this narrows down your betting, then this is not always a bad thing.
In general, Maiden races or NHFlat races, don't have much form to go on and this can cause some odd looking betting tissues and are probably best avoided unless the majority of runners have plenty of ratings.
Laying horses or trading in running
If you look for the opposite type of horse, i.e a horse that is much shorter than the tissue price suggests it should be, then you may want to Lay these runners instead of backing them.
Maybe look for horses that are less then half the tissue price, so horses that are 0.5 or less than the tissue price. If you are serious about laying, then change where I have used 1.5 as my minimum price to back, to 0.5 or 0.4 and then lay any horses - that you are confident you want to lay, knowing all the risks that laying horses can bring - that start below this new figure.
This would also be an interesting way of finding horses to trade on a Lay2Back trade, as we are expecting these horses not to win anyway.
You can actually have the run style figure for each runner shown to the side of the calculated data and using this in conjunction with horses that are possibly too short than they maybe should be, could be an excellent strategy for those who like a Lay2Back trade in running.
Update: September 24th
In the last few days I have been testing a number of races and have had some extremely positive results. I am concentrating on the same four ratings as above, Avg, Lto1, M+A and Master and only races for horses of all ages, so none just for only two year olds or only three year olds.
You can click all of the images below to enlarge them and you will see two winners from Sep 21st, one from Sep 22nd and four superb winners from yesterday Sep 24th.
With two of the winners having BSP's of over 20 and 30 and three others in double figures, you can see just how much potential this betting tissue will provide for you.
Hopefully the first image explains what is going on, but basically I am selecting the four different ratings from the Ratings box and then I click Get Data. This provides the tissue prices and I am only looking at those that in the first five, which I have highlighted in grey.
I then have a column that is the tissue price, multiplied by 1.5, then plus 1, to get a decimal price that is the minimum BSP I want to back any of these horses at. Any prices highlighted in red are those that started above the minimum required price and the winners are then shown.
Now take a look at the winners found over the last three days
I have used the Age category as an additional field which means it shows the horses age to the right of the calculations. This means I can see right away if a race is for horses of all ages or just for two or three year olds.
One point to note is jump races using this method. As we are using the Avg and Lto1 ratings, this may mean a number of '1' ratings, where a horse fell or was pulled up etc, and this could affect the calculations.
Therefore you may want to avoid all jump races where there are a number of '1' ratings in the race, or make a decision on a race where there are some ratings of just '1'.
So what are we actually doing here?
We already know that the top three rated horses in the Master column win more than 50% of the time but we also know that backing these blind, will not always produce a profit. To be fair, some months it does but it is not a strategy you can rely on.
We could just back one of these horses when they are double figure prices, but how do we know if we are getting value on these bets and how do we know what the odds these horses really should be?
By including the three other main ratings, the Avg - average of the last three ratings, the Lto1 - the last time out rating and the M+A - the Master plus the Avg, we are using and ranking, the most important Inform Racing Speed Ratings in order to come up with a minimum price we believe we should achieve before backing one of these horses.
This provides us with an overview of the ratings, giving each horse a percentage chance of winning, based on their ratings in these four columns. We can then turn this into a tissue price, or betting forecast of our own, that has nothing to do with how the bookies price up a race and therefore we may be able to give ourselves an edge, that the bookies don't have, because they won't be using these speed ratings.
By multiplying the tissue that we calculate by 1.5, (this is my choice and can be changed if you want to increase or decrease this), we build in added value to the odds and ensure that we only back when we have extra value, compared to the actual odds or Betfair prices.
Over the years, Betfair prices have shrunk at the shorter end of the market but you can still get big odds on those horses that are supposedly unfancied and by building in this extra value to our tissue price, it is very unlikely you will be backing anything under 6/1 or 7/1.
Remember I am personally only looking at horses that are in the first five of my betting tissue forecast as this is where I am finding the majority of winning bets.
You will also find there are many races that will not produce a bet because nothing will stand out to you at the odds and sticking the first five in the tissue forecast eliminates backing any real outsiders who don't really have a chance.
Hopefully you can use the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool to narrow down your bets and then only bet at decent prices, that also offer you value on every bet that you place.
To take a look at the video of the Inform Racing betting tissue tool in operation, hit the You Tube link below.
Download your copy of the Inform Racing betting tissue tool
Some users have been unable to run the excel sheet due to issues with their version of excel. Before you sign up you can check if you will be able to use the betting tissue tool, by downloading a copy now and also a copy of part of today's Inform Racing download, which has three of today's races.
So download these items and then watch the video above to check that this will work for you, then you can sign up and get the full download for today's racing and follow every race.
Please Note: This betting tissue tool will soon be available on the website so you won't need to use excel, but for now use the links below, to check that it works for you.
To download your copy of the betting tissue tool, hit the link below:
To download your copy of the three races on today's ratings download, hit the link below:
If you are a subscriber, to access today's ratings download, just login and use the 'Download Excel' link on the Races tab.
Not a current subscriber? Sign up here now >>
Subscribing To Inform Racing
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If you are a member of Inform Racing you can download your copy of the betting tissue tool now.
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