How To Increase The Strike Rate and ROI% Of The Favourites

We all know that the favourites win around 30% of the time, well probably nearer 35% of the time now, because of the accuracy of the markets down to the the exchange punters.

This still means that around 65% of them lose but that leaves you with the problem of finding the winner from all of the other runners, depending on the number running in each race, instead of just sticking to the one horse with that consistent strike rate - the favourite..

Despite so many favourites winning, you are still not going to make a profit blindly backing them all.

If you could narrow down the favourites that you back to those that had a better chance of winning, or at least increase the strike rate of those favourites, you could have a much better chance of making a profit.

If you dig a little further into those favourites that have a better chance, you can also increase your success rate, the ROI% and your profits even more. 

The ROI% is your Return On Investment and as long as it is a positive number you will have made a profit. If you had 100 bets at £1 each and made £5 total profit, then 5/100*100 = 5, so you have an ROI of 5%.

If you had 800 bets and made a toal of £170, then 170/800*100 = 21.25 so you have an Return On Investment of 21.25%.

So how can you increase the strike rate and ROI% of the favourites?

By backing a favourite, only if it is top rated by our Inform Racing Speed Ratings, then you will already increase your chances of winning on the favourites.

Let me put some meat on the bones of this fact and show you a few images of how the top Master rated horse increases the strike rate and ROI%.

First of all take a look at the stats for the Betfair favourite in all races since the start of 2018.

You can click all images on the page to enlarge them.

A 35% strike rate, an ROI of -2.38 and a massive loss of over 1,100 pts and a longest losing streak of 28 bets in a row.

If I now add in that it must be the Betfair favourite as well as the top rated horse by our Master rating, which is the best rating a horse has achieved in the last 12 months, you can see we have increased the strike rate by 16% to nearly 42%.

And whilst the number of bets have decreased, you now only have a loss of 110 pts, an ROI of just -0.73% and the longest losing run has now almost halved to just 15.

By being more selective, or delving into the form a little more you can turn this small loss into a profit. Or of course you can use the result breakdowns to filter the form to find a profitable angle for these favourites.

For example you can see below that the very low class races have a much lower win percent than class 5 or higher.

There is also a band of race distances between 1m 6furlongs and 2 m 6 furlongs where the strike rates are all more than the overall strike rate.

You can also find a number of courses and trainers where you can filter the results to get an even better overall strike rate and profits too.

Separating the form by race type.

All Weather Flat

First of all the fate of Betfair favourites overall, followed by those that were also top Master rated by the Inform Racing speed ratings.

34% strike rate up to 40%, a better ROI% and losing run changes from 20 to 15.

Again, with filters and being more selective, you can increase your success even further and there are certainly one or two of the all weather courses that you could look at, along with a number of trainers who have a 50% strike rate with these and profits too.

Flat Turf Racing

First of all the fate of Betfair favourites overall, followed by those that were also top Master rated by the Inform Racing speed ratings.

Strike rate up to 41%, longest losing run almost halved and actually an overall profit.

Removing 5 furlong races and just looking at horses who won recently would increase the profits quite nicely.

Chase Races 

First of all the fate of Betfair favourites overall, followed by those that were also top Master rated by the Inform Racing speed ratings.

Strike rate from 35% up to 42%, longest losing run improved and an 86 point loss into a small 17 point profit.

Non handicaps, class 1 races and those up to 3 miles will all increase the strike rates, Roi% and profits with these top rated Master rated horses that are also the favourites.

Hurdle Races 

First of all the fate of Betfair favourites overall, followed by those that were also top Master rated by the Inform Racing speed ratings.

Strike rate from an already excellent 39% up to a whopping 46%, longest losing run dropped from 15 to just 10 and a loss of 66 points to a profit of 62.

Younger horses, lower class races and a top speed rating last time out, amongst other factors will increase your profits with these rules in hurdle races.

Finally, what about a simple, top Master rated system? 

As you can see, just filtering your favourites by the top Master rated horse, will increase your chances of finding the winner by about 15%, increase your strike rate and ROI%, as well as lessen your longest losing runs.

Bearing in mind that the Master rating is nothing more than the best speed rating for each horse from the last 12 months, you have to agree this is quite impressive and does show the proven power of our speed ratings.

But if you want something that you can plug in and play, right now and today, then you could just use the simple, free system that I have below for you.

Simply put, a top master rated horse that had an SP of 3/1 or less last time out, will give you a very decent 31% strike rate and longest losing run so far of just 20.

More than that it has made over 449 points profit since the start of 2018 and all these profits are to BSP, including 5% deducted from all winning bets.

Looking at the result breakdowns for this, there really are a number of ways that you could increase the profits, such as the age of the horse in question, chase races are not as succesful as other race types and horses with a held up run style profile, have a lower success rate than those who like to lead or be prominent. 

Or just use it as it is because it has made good profits and a profit every year since 2018. Notice also how similar the number of bets and strike rates have been each year.

And don't forget, to get any bets for the day, just tick the Declaration box at the top and apply the rules.

All bets for the day will be listed for you in race time order, so no need to search through the form guides or websites to find all horses that were 3/1 or less last time out. 

Summary

There are many ways to use our speed ratings but sticking to the top or top 3 rated is always a good idea as it reduces the number of horses that you need to look at and when combining the top rated with the favourites, you can have some excellent strike rates.

Then by using the results breakdowns you can filter these results to improve things even further.

Or just stick the free system idea using the top Master rated horses, along with those that had an SP of 3/1 or less, last time out.

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