In Running Trading Part 3
In Running Trading
Please note this software is now available as a desktop application and works better and faster then the version that was created when this post was written. However the principles of the post are exactly the same and will work just as well to find the best back to lay and dobbing trades. www.in-running-trading-tool.co.uk
I just thought I would give you a few more examples of the in running trading trading software I have designed so that you can see what you may be able to achieve when I have it completed.
I am close to sharing this application but I just want to test it in full to make sure that it can take all of the bumps and knocks it will get when used by others everyday.
Some examples of how to use the data provided. (Please click any images below to enlarge them.)
There are three main ways of using the data that the software provides.
- The main form guide for each horse showing full details of each run and a great way of seeing past and recent form including race class, prize money, going, equipment and more. It is also an excellent way of seeing how a horses handicap mark has gone up and or down and to compare it to today’s which is shown for each horse above the form guide in red.
- The output data shown in pink which highlights horses that trade low in running, more of which I will discuss later on.
- The far right columns highlighted in green and gold, ideal for finding solid back to lay trades.
The full details of every horse is shown on the main output page, another page highlights the best horses to go for who trade low in running and the final page shows those that have the greatest likelihood of dropping in price and therefore make excellent back to lay opportunities.
Back To Lay Trades
Below we have the data for King Muro who ran yesterday in the 2.40 at Huntingdon and here we are looking at a horse who is very likely to trade lower than the BSP in running.
For the far right hand column you can choose two different amounts that a horse has dropped in price before.
The default is set at 75% and 50%, with the 75% highlighted in gold and the 50% in green, however you can change these to anything you want in the settings.
Here the gold figures mean the horse has dropped between 51% and 75% in price in running and the green means a drop of up to 50% – a drop of at least half, in running.
Looking at King Muro you can see that 100% of the time the horses price has dropped by at least 75% in running and in 60% of its races the price has dropped by at least 50%.
Very clear to see and very valuable to know!
All in all this shows a horse that is very likely to drop in price by at least 75% and therefore an excellent opportunity for a back to lay trade.
You can use the calculation sheet that is included to work out any percentage drop from the BSP of a horse and also work out from your chosen stake, chosen profit aim, the price you will need to be laying at and how many ticks that works out at if you are using betting software such as Bet Angel or Geeks Toy.
On this occasion King Muro dropped approximately 55% from a BSP of 20.62 to 12.5 and was indeed a winning back to lay trade.
This software doesn’t just find horses that lead and therefore often drop in price, in fact these are generally well known to most traders and do not drop in price as quickly as you may think.
In fact King Muro is generally a hold up horse who travels well as he did in yesterdays race and horses like these are the ones that perform the best for in running trading and those that the software will highlight for you clearly, time after time.
The back to lay page only selects horse that have an 80% strike rate or better for the highest percentage number selected meaning you can drill down to just those with the best chances of trading lower in running, much quicker, from a full day of racing, however every horses form and stats are shown on the initial output page.
Horses That Trade Very Short In Running
The other page that highlights just those with the best opportunities is the Short In Running page.
Here just those with a good ratio of hitting a low in running price to the number of wins are highlighted and can be used in two ways.
- If a horse often runs short in running and doesn’t win very often, you can set a low lay price to ‘keep’ in running knowing that if the horse hits this low price, the chances are it will still lose.
- Horses that often run short in running can be laid at a low price, so again there are possible back to lay opportunities. However you can look at each horse individually and if you find one that is now well handicapped and runs close very often, it may be worth a straight win bet, knowing it can run close and is on a winning mark.
Below you can see the data for Lawyer and we are looking at the numbers highlighted in pink, which is the column showing the in running low price for each horse.
Here again you can set the parameters that you choose, I have them as showing a horse that hit 3.1 in running as long as it’s BSP was 5.0 or bigger. (You want to choose a number not too close to the low in running price. For example a horse that starts at 3.2 is very likely to hit 3.1 in running but that won’t always tell us very much, however you can set these to whatever you want with the default set to 3.1 and 5.0.)
All those in running prices of 3.1 or less are now highlighted in pink and you will see there are 6 in the column, however two of these are from a BSP lower than 5.0. (BSP is shown in the next column and the two below are at 4.09 and 2.77.)
This means the horse has hit 3.1 in running 4 times from 5.0 or bigger, without winning. (It has actually done it 6 times but from lower BSP’s and as I say you can make up your own mind what figures you want to select.)
For your information, winning form rows are highlighted in blue and the other prices highlighted in blue is the place price column when the horse was actually placed.
The two last figures in pink and blue show that the horse has met our criteria 4 times and won just once, so 4-1 in pink. It has also won 1 race from the 20 races shown which is the 5% in blue.
On this occasion Lawyer went off at a BSP of 5.76, traded in running at a low of 2.8 and lost, so a great opportunity to lay in running at a lower price, knowing that the horse was indeed likely to trade low and not win.
If you had followed this horse and laid it in running at 3.1 you would have made money overall. Again only the best opportunities for this feature are selected on this output page so you can see these all very clearly from all of the races you originally select.
Finally a quick look at where you can select which races you wish to follow on the day and the parameters for the gold, green and short in running pink figures. Personally I only use Handicap races for older horses both flat and jumps as there is not a lot of form to go on in Maiden or Novice events quite often.
Everything shown in the Parameters are the default settings but these can be changed at anytime by the user which will change the data on the output sheets accordingly.
This is available now: www.in-running-trading-tool.co.uk
I will be putting together a user guide or web page over the weekend explaining this in running trading software application in full.