My Thoughts December 19th 2022

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This is not a tipping service, these are just my suggestions for bets and only that. It is hoped that you will be able to use the ideas I am using yourself to find other horses to back

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A top rated selection at Kempton this afternoon

Today I am looking at the 2.50 Kempton and the horse Covert Mission.

The horse has a great record at Kempton winning 50% of the time and has 2/3 record over the course and distance. On Polytrack over a mile he has won three times from four starts, a 75% strike rate.

He is not the only won in a tight handicap where 6 of the now 7 runners are all carrying 9-13.

You can see in the pop up box for this horse, the good form that he already has and has already won 4 of his 15 starts. On the pop up box, we colour code the form, so blue is all weather and red is for flat turf races. (For jumps, blue is hurdle or NHF form and red is chase form.)

Covert Mission won two races ago and is just 2lb's higher today.

In his latest race at Wolverhampton, over 1m 1f he didn't have the best of runs and was drawn 9 of 11 which wasn't ideal

The comments show he didn't have a clear run and lost his position two furlongs out and then weakend inside the final furlong, in a race that is one furlong longer than today.

With only seven rivals today there shouldn't be any trouble in running and the draw in stall 4 is not a problem.

It is a very tight handicap and there are enough in here to give Covert Mission a problem today.

William Buick rides Excting News who could easily improve from his first run on the all weather two weeks ago and I have a niggling feeling for Lost In Time who has run well both times over course and distance. He has generally been running in better class races than today and last time he ran over course and distance he reared in the stalls and couldn't get near the front as he prefers, yet was beaten less than three lengths.

The short priced favourite Brains, isn't one that I have the most concerns about. He has great form over course and distance but has already had five runs at or below his last winning mark and while he could pop in again soon, I would prefer the odds to be better than the current 6/4.

Top rated Covert Mission has a Master rating of 85, higher than the best ever for this race type/class/age group (84) and  has my support under Daniel Muscat this afternoon.

He is around 7/2 second favourite currently.

Fingers crossed for a good run 🙂

4th 7/2

In running comments: 

Prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out

You can use some or all of these methods to find other horses to back everyday using the Inform Racing race cards.

Ian Welch

Creator and owner of Inform since 2003, I have over 30 years of racing and betting experience to share. Speed ratings are my main passion whilst updating the website and writing the odd blog post keeps me busy and hopefully other users well informed.

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