My Thoughts November 19th 2022
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I have an eye on one at Wolverhampton in the 6.30 this evening. Civil Law
It has been dropped 4 lbs since its last all weather run, circled on the image below and pointing to that 9th position two runs ago. You can see in the rectangle box the -4 showing the drop since last all weather run and its last win was off 87, so it is thee first time since it last won it has been dropped below that mark.
As we colour code the runs between red (flat turf or chase races) and blue (All weather, hurdles or NHF), it is not too hard to see the better finsihing positions in blue on tonights surface.
But you can also open up the Advanced Search below the card and get some better stats also.
I have run this to get just the form on Tapeta and from the last two years. It is clear there are a lot of horses with decent stats so no surprise it is a competitive race but I like the 50% strike rate from 6 races and placed another time.
I like the fact it is now on a good mark and the jockey booking of Cieran Fallon seems interesting. Civil Law is well drawn and usually runs behind the pace so could get a good sit.
Lightly raced and only a 5 year old, the only negative for me is he seems to prefer smaller fields but you can't have everything.
Unfortunately the early forecast price of 14's has disappeared and is now around the 13/2 mark so my each way bet will now be on the nose.
Fingers crossed for a good run 🙂
In running comments:
Midfield, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, squeezed through inside final furlong, ridden and kept on well to lead inside final 110yds, won going away (trainer said, regarding the apparent improvement in form, that the gelding appreciated the 105-day break, which was noted)
You can use some or all of these methods to find other horses to back everyday using the Inform Racing race cards.