My Thoughts November 22nd 2022
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An early one today at Southwell. Do It For Thy Sen
This horse has now won 3 out of three at Southwell and aims to follow up the latest win today off just 4 lbs higher.
The first time it won it followed up with another win as you can see below, then the form tailed off. I have a concern that this time the last win was back in May and is now returning after 182 days and the best winning form has been when running fairly recently.
If ready for this, the last time rating of 84 is way better than anything else could muster.
Filtering the form
Just filtering the form by today's forecast going and chase races, on the advanced search feature, you can see the horse has won twice and been placed second the other time. The speed ratings for these runs very good too compared to many in the race.
The horse has also won on good to soft if the ground changes slightly for the worse.
Trainer Kerry Lee has a 33% strike rate at the course from just 15 runs, so looks like she runs her better chances here and the jockey has won on the horse before, in fact it was in the last win.
The obvious negative is the fairly long lay off but I think we will pay for that by getting a better price than had it won within the last couple of weeks.
The the favourite has the profile of something many will want to be on too, Trainer/Jockey combo of the Skeltons, lightly raced, second last time out, so that will all hopefully help our price stay around the 6/1 mark which it is best priced at currently.
Fingers crossed for a good run 🙂
In running comments:
Took keen hold, prominent, ridden and weakened from 4 out, pulled up before 3 out (op 11/2 tchd 5/1)
You can use some or all of these methods to find other horses to back everyday using the Inform Racing race cards.