My Thoughts November 25th 2022
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Each Way selection around 16/1
Looking at the low class 3.30 Doncaster today where from the 14 runners now in, only 3 have ever won a race and this suggestion, which I am backing each way, is a lot to do with the odds as well as anything else.
The horse is Finalshot
The going today is Good, on which the has had its two previous wins and has won in class 4 where today is class 5.
Today the race is at Doncaster where the horse has a 0/3 record but only one of those was in a hurdle race, the others over fences.
For a 9 year old he is quite lightly raced having only had 22 runs and as I say has at least won a race, or two in fact.
The favourite is obviously Cornicello but if you look at the betting, Finalist takes an interesting position amongst the other horses
If you look at the Bet 365 odds, you can see the favourite at around 11/8, then the next five are the lightly raced, younger horses very likely to improve today, at odds of up to 10/1.
Then you have Finalshot, now around 14/1 and even 12/1 in a place or two. The next odds are 28/1 and upwards, with even Kings Creek at 40's who is well handicapped now and has also won before.
On Betfair Finalshot is fifth fav at 19 and Kings Creek is 34
So Finalshot is sort of positioned where they think he could do something but want to get some money on him by making it a double figure price.
In a very low grade handicap hurdle, I'm taking a chance that Finalshot can return to form, can beat at least two or three of the unknowns towards the top of the market and get at least a place today.
Fingers crossed for a good run 🙂
In running comments:
Prominent, led 6f out on extended run-in, ridden and headed over 2f out, lost position over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong (op 14/1)
My added comments:
Due to low sunlight the horses only jumped 4 hurdles and this probably favoured the younger horses. My thoughts on courses doing this has always been clear, just don't run the race when they have to remove any obstacles. It is so unfair to punters who have placed early bets expecting a fair race to be run over the published race conditions.
You can use some or all of these methods to find other horses to back everyday using the Inform Racing race cards.