My Thoughts November 26th 2022

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Two selections today

1.20 Newbury 

I have made a short video today running through the race and an explanation of why I think this horse will run well and hopefully win.

You can play the video on this page or click 'Watch on YouTube to see it play larger in a new window.

Fingers crossed for a good run ๐Ÿ™‚

9th 4/1
BSP 5.9
In running comments: 

Held up in last, hit 6th, nudged along and headway when bad mistake 3 out, soon no chance (op 5/1)

5.20 Wolverhampton

It's always nice to have a go at something at a big price as these are the ones that can grow the bank forward a little quicker if they come in.

Whilst I would have felt more confident in my judgement had the earlier horse run better, I'm still on this one coming up each way in a low grade handicap.

It is the horse called Murbih who has yet to win a race.

I'll just go through the reasons I want to back this horse.

  • Run Style: It is the only horse remotely close to running up with the pace or leading, as you can see he has a 2 run style figure against the others who are 3's and 4's. Any chance of getting the lead in this 5 furlong contest would be useful.
  • The horse is still only a 3 year old with only 12 runs under his belt.
  • After a number of runs on the turf where he was placed a few times, he reverts back to the all weather today.
  • If you look at the drop down form highlighted in red for his run at Newcastle in March, he was only beaten about a length and a half in a class 4, 5f race, today is a class 6 race and after that he only ran on the turf during the Summer.
  • Joint top rated speed ratings of 81 today from a 5 furlong race at Ripon on good ground in a class 4 race, beaten only a head. 
  • Today he has been dropped 9 lbs from that good Newcastle run, 69 down to 60.
  • He is dropping into a Class 6 race for the first time in his career.

Currently around the 25/1 mark, my hope is that he can get out well and at least hang on for a place.

The huge drop in mark from what was a good run on his last start on the all weather, should give him some sort of chance although the odds do suggest otherwise.

Fingers crossed for a good run ๐Ÿ™‚

Won 12/1
BSP 16.9

In running comments: 

Disputed lead, headed and raced in second 4f out, ridden and led 1f out, ran on well (op 16/1)

You can use some or all of these methods to find other horses to back everyday using the Inform Racing race cards.

Ian Welch

Creator and owner of Inform since 2003, I have over 30 years of racing and betting experience to share. Speed ratings are my main passion whilst updating the website and writing the odd blog post keeps me busy and hopefully other users well informed.

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