Reduce Your Losing Runs With The 80/20 Staking Plan
I have been banging on lately about losing runs, how to cope with losing runs and also, how to work out if your system has a positive or negative, 'actual to expected losing run figure'.
This last part calculates the longest losing run you can expect from your system. If you have a system with a shorter losing run so far than expected, then this is a positive for your particular system.
Dealing with losing runs.
It is impossible however to not have a losing run from time to time and this can get even the most understanding punter a little bit worried.
However, losing runs are here to stay and if you want to win money, you need to accept them as part of the game.
I have many profitable betting systems found using the Inform Racing System Builder, that have had losing runs of 17, 18, 19, even more.
Once you have bet through these low times on a few occasions, knowing that you have a positive losing run figure already and are making a profit over the long term, then it does become a little easier but it can be quite a nervous time when you hit a bad streak.
Using the 80/20 staking can reduce your anxiety.
The 80/20 staking plan is like a lopsided each way bet where you place 20% of your total stake on the win and 80% on the place. As horses do place more often, then you have more money on the place bet than on the win. So when a horse is placed, you do get a return and getting a return from your 80/20 staking, will reduce the losing runs.
If you win then you get a return on the win and the place, if you lose you lose the stake you would have bet anyway.
You can change the percentages if you like to either 70/30 or 60/40 but I think 80/20 is a good place to start as you will see if you give this idea a go.
Exciting system builder update.
I cannot say exactly when but we are in the middle of adding an each way, or 80/20 staking plan to the system builder, so this will mean that you can choose your win and place percentage and your stake and run your systems through to get the profit/loss and longest losing run between getting a positive return on your overall bet.
You will also be able choose 100% win and 0% place for a straight win bet, or 50% on both for a normal each way bet.
Things always take longer than expected but this will be part of a number of additions we are making to improve what is already a pretty unique and very use able system builder.
Until then you can try this out.
On our system builder we use the Betfair place rules instead of the traditional bookmaker place rules.
This means that if a race has say 8 runners declared but 2 are non runners, you will still get paid out on Betfair for a place bet, if your horse comes third.
The same as if there are 16 runners declared in a handicap where you will get paid out on 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. If there are 3 are non runners, you would only get paid out for the first three home with your bookmaker for this 13 runner race, however Betfair will still pay out if your horse finishes fourth.
Until we have the 80/20 capability on the system builder, you could try using the results download and the calculations I am going to give you now to see how your profit and loss as well as losing run would change, if you split your stakes between win bets and place bets.
Take a look at the video below.
You can use this if you have your own set of results that use the bookmaker place betting rules as long as you put the position in column D, the SP in column G and the place price in column I.
You can also test for a normal each way bet by using 50% of your stake on both win and place, so for a £10 stake add 5 in cell L1 and 5 in cell M1.
Summary
Maybe the 80/20 staking plan could be something you can use going forward. As you can see it can at least reduce the losing runs you get and will give you more returns by getting paid out when your horse is placed and reducing the liability on the win bet part.
Soon this will be on the system builder so it will automatically calculate the data for you.
If you are interested in the losing runs and how to work out if your system has a positive or negative number, then hit the link below.
