Two Quick Ways To Find Winners
1. Run Styles
As you may or may not know, how a horse usually runs in a race can be key to how a race in general may pan out.
Horses tend to have their preferred run style and if you know this about each runner, you can make an educated guess as to what will happen and even place a bet, without knowing anything else about the runners in the race at all.
We give each horse a number for each race depending on how it ran and then we give a 'run style' number which gives you the average run style number for the horses last 5 races.
1 = horses that led
2 = horses that chased or ran behind the leaders
3 = horses that ran in midfield
4 = horses that start slowly or were held up
If you have a race with a lot of held up horses and just one or maybe two front runners, the front runners can get an easy lead, set their own pace and take the race from the front. As they get the easy lead they are not using a lot of energy and have plenty left to keep going from the front.
In reverse, if you have a race with a lot of front runners, they are likely to all want to get to the front, take each other on and use up a lot of energy. This can leave the door open for the hold up horses who run through the tiring front runners in the last furlong or two.
There was a race at Chelmsford on Thursday evening where there were 5 front runners (run style 1), from the 8 runner field. You can see the race card below.
All images can be enlarged it by clicking them.
This means that a lot of horses were likely to contest the lead, want to get to the front and set the race up for the closers, or held up horses (run style 4).
You can see on the card there were only two held up horses Mountain Road and Spit Spot.
Mountain Road 5/2 won the race with Spit Spot 33/1, coming second.
You can find the full result of this race and see the in running comments that show that what happened was just what we had expected.
Whilst this doesn't happen every time, it is worth looking out for a race where the majority of runners have a run style number 1 and just the odd one or two with a run style 4, as these horses can and do take advantage of the fast early pace, to run through the tiring leaders in the last furlong or so.
Another extra pointer in this particular race is that the last 20 winners of races similar to this one, were won by the held up horses 45% of the time. You can see this on the line below the race card in red.
This is actually quite rare, as most races have an advantage for the front runners or those that run behind the leaders, 1 and 2 run styles but this one gave a decent advantage to the held up horses, plus the run styles of the runners in the race gave the advantage to the held up horses, so look out for more races like this and see if you can pin point any winners.
If you open up all of the Inform Racing race cards an sort them by the run style number, you will be able to see very quickly if there are any races worth looking at each day.
2. Simple course and distance stats
This is something I recently posted on Twitter and is a simple system idea you can use for a specific course and distance, which in this case was Lingfield (A.W) and handicap races over 1 mile.
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Using the system builder, I added these very simple rules below.
Once I ran this system, I looked at the result breakdowns for the list of Trainers, sorted the list by those who had made the most profit and selected the top 9 trainers by profit, who also had a decent strike rate too.
You can select by win% or whatever and make your own decisions on which Trainers you want to use and how many, however I chose the top 9 trainers by profit that had run horses in 1 mile handicaps at Lingfield on the all weather since the start of 2018.
When I added this list to my earlier rules I got the following, positive results.
You can check out my video here on how to create and save your list of Trainers for the system builder very easily, rather than having to add each one separately on the system builder.
So once I had added my list of trainers to the system rules, I ran this through the declarations for the day and saw that there were 4 qualifiers.
One of these, Excel Power, won at 9/1 with a BSP of 13.15. So a profit on the day for these bets.
So this could now be something you use everytime there is a Lingfield meeting on the all weather BUT you can also do this for any course and distance on the flat or over the jumps.
You just want to make sure there have been enough bets in the past to get a decent record and that the top 8, 9, 10, 20, 30 or whatever number of trainers you want to select, have good strike rates and profits.
You can see on the summary of results on image above, that the average winning BSP was 13.31, there was a healthy E.L.S edge and a great Chi score.
You may look at another course and distance that doesn't look so good but don't worry, there are hundreds to have a go at!
If you can find a number of these little 'trainers over course and distance systems' and use them all year round, then you could make some good money just on this one simple idea.
Both of these simple system ideas can be run using the Inform Racing race cards and system builder, both of which are part of a subscriptionthat can cost from as little as £3.85 a week. Much less than most people even place on a bet!
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