There’s something about Guineas weekend that always feels 'a bit early' to me. To have two of the Classics just six weeks after the start of the flat season is like having the FA cup final in October.
However, for those involved with any of the runners, it has to be an exciting time given so many high class hopefuls taking part. Not just because it’s the first Classic, but because it gives you that first proper look at the three year olds stepping out of their juvenile days and into something more serious.
History
The 2000 and 1000 Guineas have been run for over 200 years, both staged on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile over a straight mile, and they’ve always carried that same sense of tradition and transition. Horses either confirm what we thought we knew about them, or they completely rewrite the narrative.
The structure is simple. The 2000 Guineas is open to 3 year old colts and fillies, although in reality it’s dominated by colts, while the 1000 Guineas is restricted to fillies. Both are run over the mile, both carry level weights - with only a small allowance for fillies in the colts race, and both demand a very specific blend of speed, balance and stamina to see it out on that long and open, unforgiving straight.
What makes these races so interesting is that they don’t always go to the obvious horse. You get your standout winners, the Frankels and the standout fillies that dominate their generation, but just as often you get something a bit less expected. Horses that improve from two to three in an unexpected manner - those that were slightly overlooked at the back end of the previous season.
That’s always been part of the Guineas puzzle.
Recent history tells you that even favourites are far from certain to win or even run well. In fact, only one market leader has won the 2000 Guineas in the last decade, which says a lot about how tricky this race can be to pin down.
The market tends to latch onto strong two year old form and from those stables that generally have the top horses under their tuition, but the jump from two to three is rarely straightforward.
This year looks no different.
In the 2000 Guineas, the conversation has centred around Bow Echo, an unbeaten colt who has done everything right so far and ticks a lot of the usual boxes coming into the race. He’s already shown he can win at a decent level and comes from the right sort of profile, which is why he’s been heading the market.
But as always with this race, being the most obvious horse is not always the same as being the right bet.
There’s also been plenty of talk around Gstaad, especially after the late drama of being taken out and then supplemented back in. That kind of disruption doesn’t always help, but it does highlight how highly regarded he is behind the scenes, and he’s the big hope for the O'Brien and Ryan Moore team
Beyond those, there are a few at slightly bigger prices being mentioned quietly. Horses that have shown ability without fully exposing themselves, or those stepping up from strong late season form. And horses who have done nothing wrong that would probably be much shorter if trained by someone with a double barreled surname that speaks with a posh accent!
In the 2000 guineas however, I don't see past the first three in the market, so perhaps nothing too exciting there.
1000 Guineas on Sunday
The 1000 Guineas tends to follow a similar pattern, just with a slightly different feel. Fillies can improve very quickly from two to three, sometimes more dramatically than colts, and that often leads to a more open race than it first appears. It’s not unusual to see a filly come from slightly under the radar and suddenly look top class in a race like this.
I would put up The Prettiest Star for Ed Walker to run a good race on Sunday at around 16/1, having run well over 7f over the same course last September.
And that’s really the essence of the weekend.
You’ve got horses with strong reputations trying to confirm them, others trying to catch up, and a few that haven’t quite shown their hand yet. The mile at Newmarket has a way of exposing everything. If they don’t stay, you’ll see it and if they don’t handle the track, you’ll probably see that too.
The weather looks to stay fair with a few drops of rain on Sunday so the ground should be perfect for some of these stars of the future.
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