If you really want to understand the Grand National, you have to start with just how old and slightly chaotic it has always been. The race is generally traced back to 1839, although there were earlier races at Aintree that looked very similar.
From the beginning it was never meant to be neat or predictable!
It was a long distance chase over huge fences, designed as much to test survival and bravery as it was speed.
What still makes the modern day Nationals different straight away are the fences themselves. Becher's Brook, The Chair and Canal Turn are not just obstacles, they're personalities in their own right. Horses don't just jump them, they negotiate them, and plenty simply can't manage it. This unpredictability is why the race quickly became part sport, part spectacle, and part national event.
Even now, despite modern safety changes, it still carries that sense of 'just about anything can happen' and that is not marketing hype, it is baked into the DNA of the race.
Legends, longshots and moments that stay with us
You cannot talk about the Grand National without bringing up Red Rum. Unconventially trained on the beach at Southport by Trainer Ginger Mcain, his three wins in the 1970s and two seconds in between is still almost impossible to comprehend. He was not just dominant, he was consistent in a race where consistency barely exists.
Then you get the complete opposite with Foinavon, a 100/1 outsider who basically avoided the pile up at Canal Turn while most of the field came down or got hampered. His jockey barely knew he was leading until very late on. That tells you everything about the randomness this race can throw up.
Red Marauder winning in atrocious conditions at 33/1 in 2001, where only four horses completed the course and two of those had remounted. Something that was allowed back then but has been banned in all races now.
More recently, Tiger Roll gave the race a modern hero with back to back wins in 2018 and 2019. He brought back a bit of that Red Rum feeling, showing that class can still shine through even in chaos.
And then there are the human stories. Bob Champion winning on Aldaniti after recovering from cancer is one of the most emotional moments the sport has ever seen.
If you are looking for amusing or bizarre, there are plenty. Riders going the wrong way, loose horses completing the course on their own, and even a race in 1993 that had to be declared void because of a false start that many jockeys did not realise had happened. I remember those helmet cam shots of the jockeys stuck literally inside the fences after falling and calling out for a safety check from the stewards from a few years ago.
Yes, it's that kind of race!
The evolution of handicapping and who gets a run
Now this is where things get more technical, but it matters if you are trying to take the race seriously. The Grand National is a handicap, which means better horses carry more weight to level the playing field. Historically that sounded simple, but in reality it created problems.
Before the changes in this century, you could get horses sneaking in with marks that did not really reflect their ability, or top class horses being asked to carry extreme weights that made winning almost impossible. The gap between top and bottom weights could distort the race.
Gradually the authorities tightened things up and the rating band of horses allowed into the race became more compressed. The idea was to ensure that every runner is at least of a certain standard, rather than just filling the field. That is why you now see fewer complete outsiders lining up compared to decades ago.
Another key shift was the reduction in extreme weights and the general improvement in horse quality across the field. Combined with fence modifications for safety, the race is now more of a test of class and stamina than pure survival. It still throws up shocks, but they are less random and more explainable.
In simple terms, the modern Grand National is still unpredictable, but it is no longer a lottery in the way it once was.
Looking ahead to today’s race
If we narrow it down to two or three profiles rather than just names first of all, these stand out as the most interesting:
First, the classy top weight contender. In the modern era, top weights are far more competitive than they used to be because the handicap is tighter. If you have a horse near the top of the weights that has Grade 1 form and proven stamina, it is a serious player rather than something to oppose automatically like you could a few years ago.
Second, the well handicapped improver. This is often the sweet spot. A horse that has been running in strong races, finishing well without winning, and now gets into the National with a workable mark. These are the types that suddenly improve when stepped up in trip.
Third, the experienced National type. Horses that have either run well in the race before or have shown they thrive in big field chaos are always worth a second look. Or horses that have already shown they can handle the Aintree fences, because not every horse enjoys these fences even in their modern form.. Experience counts for a lot here, even if it is not obvious in the bare form figures.
The bottom line is this. The Grand National is no longer just about luck, but it does still play a part. You want a horse with class, stamina, and a bit of tactical patience, but you also need things to fall right. That is why it still remains a difficult race to solve but still one of the most compelling.
Let's pick out a few today
Proven class and proven stamina - I Am Maximus
This is the obvious starting point, and importantly not just hype.
• He’s already won the race in 2024, which immediately puts him in a different bracket.
• He’s trained by Willie Mullins, whose yard has dominated recent Nationals.
• He’s again near the top of the market favourites.
The only real negative is obvious - he’ll be carrying a big weight of nearly 12 stone and in a race like this that always leaves you vulnerable late on. However, if he runs his race and gets round cleanly, he sets the standard.
The ‘value improver’ angle - Jagwar
This is the kind of horse that fits your typical ‘interesting’ profile and is seen as progressive and improving. Not a massive price currently but is also our second top speed rated horse in the race off 100, 2 less than top rated Firefox from the Gordon Elliot yard.
What makes Jagwar interesting is the form trajectory. Horses like this often haven’t peaked yet, and the National trip can unlock further improvement and fits the modern trend almost perfectly, so;
• progressive profile
• solid jumping
• not overexposed
Finally something at better odds and the solid, proven ‘National type’ - Iroko
Iroko finished 4th in last year’s Grand National, so he's already proven in the race and he has the key attributes of stamina, experience, and the ability to handle the track.
Even though his recent form has dipped slightly, that is often less important in this race than people think. What matters more is course suitability and staying power.
So if you want reliability in a race that rarely offers it, this is the one for you.
Summary
The modern Grand National is no longer about finding a miracle 100/1 shot that just survives. It is about identifying horses that combine class, stamina, and efficiency over fences, within a now much tighter and more competitive handicap structure.
This year’s race looks like a classic case study of that shift. You have a proven elite winner in I Am Maximus, a progressive profile in Jagwar, and a hardened, race tested stayer in Iroko.
But don't forget it is still worth a couple of quid on an outsider just for fun, so I may give Firefox a go along with Perceval Legallois. The latter fell when among the favs at last years National, so if his jumping can hold together better today, could be worth 50p each way at odds around 33/1.
All in all, in the Grand National, it's not just who is good enough - but who gets the luck in running when it matters.
Result:
1st I am Maximus 9/2f
2nd Iroko 18/1
3rd Jordans 28/1
4th Johnnywho 12/1