I gave a 40/1 winner as one of my daily selections yesterday. Myself and others who had backed it were very happy of course, but this post is not really about this one winner or me and my daily selections, but something I hope will give you some food for thought about your betting and how to progress.
A few days ago I recieved an email from a subscriber which I will go over a bit later in this post, about a big winner he had found. Then I had a few emails yesterday saying thanks for the winning selection, So Chic in the 2.53 Lingfield.
One of these yesterday made me think of the previous email - and then I thought about the results of my daily selections so far this year - and it all came together to give me the idea for this post today.
The daily selections
I have been posting a few selections each day on the Noticeboard for subscribers since the beginning of 2024 and you can see all of the results on the link below.
I do not promote these selections as part of the subscription package but they are free to subscribers and they can do what they want with them.
It turns out that more have been following them than I had imagined, given the response yesterday after So Chic had won.
2024 ended nicely with a 191 pt profit, 2025 had been a bit of a struggle, although it was still showing a positive total before yesterday.
Whilst this winner, that had a BSP of 60, was exceptional in the size of the odds - it could have been a couple of 14/1 or 20/1 winners instead that markedly increased the total profit as So Chic had done.
An excellent example of why we should stick to our guns.
On the last day of February this year, after a losing run of 12, my selections hit a low point of -36 points. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t wonder whether I still had it in me to find a winner.
Posting these selections daily also made me think about what it must have looked like to anyone following along - a run like that can test anyone’s confidence.
Fast forward just two weeks to March 12th, and the selections had crawled their way back into profit, barely, but back in the black. By the end of March, they were showing a 20 pt profit.
These results are all shown to Betfair Starting Prices (BSP), and the difference versus standard SP is huge. For context, last year’s selections returned an 8.7% ROI and 69 points profit to SP, but a far more impressive 23.94% ROI and 191 points profit to BSP. Even after 2% commission, that’s still 187 points.
Had I panicked when 36 points down and switched strategy, chasing shorter prices to make the record 'look better', or trying something completely new, who knows what would have happened?
Instead, I trusted the process that had worked before and stuck to my guns that delivered success last year. That decision to stick to what I had been doing all along and not changing, is what turned things around.
And this is where I want to return to the emails I referred to at the beginningof this post.
The first one below refers to Qirat in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood recently who won at 150/1 with a BSP of 270, that this user found using a system he developed using the Inform Racing system builder.
I want to highlight the part shown below in bold type as it reminded me of the run of results I have had during this year..
Dear Ian,
Just a quick note to say I have no intentions of cancelling—your service has been absolutely brilliant. I had a fantastic win on the 30th June at 3:05pm with a BSP of 270/1, picked up by three of my systems developed using your system builder.
It’s not always easy, especially during those long, draining losing runs. But with patience, a solid bank, and the understanding that making money takes time—and emotions must be kept in check—the odds really do swing in favour of long-term gains.
The results on your site match exactly what I get now that I’m live—well done! My only small wish is that Irish races were also included in the system builder. Still, I genuinely love the service.
AZ
Those words in bold are so important and should be read again, because everyone has been on the wrong end of a losing run and wondered what the **** am I doing?
Believing in your approach and sticking with it, even when a method that once worked feels like it’s losing its edge, is a challenge every punter faces sooner or later.
There’s nothing unusual about this. This is betting. This is what happens to everyone.
If you want to make money, you must accept that losing runs are part of the game.
It’s never going to be a walk in the park. Betting can feel like the odds are against you, like the game itself doesn’t want you to win. I’ve felt it too. This year alone, 103 of my selections have finished second, and I’ll never forget the ones that were beaten by a nose or a short head at double-figure odds.
It’s frustrating beyond belief. But learning to ride out the lows is what builds resilience and it’s that resilience that turns you into a truly successful punter.
The second email I recieved yesterday is below and very much shorter but again, he talks of following the selections since the start of the year. He would have had the same peaks and troughs we all had but with faith, Rodney has come out of the other side in a good position.
Hi Ian just had to drop you a short thank you for So chic winning today,have been following the daily selections since the beginning of the year and have been betting on for over fifty years and cant remember a more profitable day,thanks again.
Rodney
Betting has its ups and downs
The two graphs below follow the bets from 2024 and 2025 and are probably about as normal a set of results as you could have. Given the average odds are very roughly around the 7/1 mark.
As you can see, they have plenty of downs that will test your resolve. There are also periods where very little seems to happen, before a jump up and then you continue on again.
Clearly the BSP winner at 60 has given the second graph a real boost and in fact more than doubled the profit in one day, that we had made in over six months.
But this is betting and one key lesson to remember is that focusing only on short-priced favourites isn’t the whole game. Betting on bigger priced runners can make all the difference and mixing up the odds gives you the chance of landing a result like ‘So Chic’ yesterday, which paid handsomely.
So far this year, I’ve had 173 bets that went off at under 3/1 SP. They produced a solid 36% strike rate, yet only 11 points of profit. Take those bets out and the overall strike rate would drop sharply, leading to longer losing runs, but that’s the trade off.
Personally, I like a balance. A steady flow of shorter priced winners to keep things ticking over, combined with the payoff of the occasional double figure winner. It’s that mix that makes betting both enjoyable and exciting.
Conclusion.
There is no right or wrong when it comes to personal choice and what suits you best. The number of bets you want each day, the odds range, the losing runs you are happy to accept and more.
Take a look at the first email again where I have then highlighted the bullet points underneath.
It’s not always easy, especially during those long, draining losing runs. But with patience, a solid bank, and the understanding that making money takes time—and emotions must be kept in check—the odds really do swing in favour of long-term gains.
- It's not always easy
- There are draining losing runs
- But with patience
- A solid bank
- Understanding that making money takes time
- Emotions must be kept in check
- Then the odds really can swing in your favour
The feeling I had after So Chic had won, not so much about the odds but that the profit graph had gone up another level, after a slow first six months, reminded me of this message.
As you can see on the 2024 graph, it was on between about 140 pts and 160 pts for about 250 bets, before a good run took the profits to over 200 pts, before dipping back down again.
There is no magic formula, you need to be patient, disciplined and as is mentioned above, have a solid bank behind you so that losing doesn't matter. If you don't and start panicking after four or five losers then you should probably not be betting. Seriously.
You’ll have wins, you’ll have losses and if you’ve found a solid angle, you’ll likely enjoy a run of winners, followed by the inevitable losing streak. That’s just how betting flows.
The crucial thing is that you’ll never know if you can turn a profit unless you get started, then ride out the rough patches.
If you’re betting smart, focusing on value, your chances of long term success are high. It just might take longer than you want it to but that is where patience and discipline come into play.
I like to think that using Inform Racing has helped a lot of people become more disciplined and to bet in a more professional manner. Creating your own strategies with the system builder and saving them to use again and to get your own daily selections, can be very rewarding.
And the best part? By learning along the way and making sure that your betting is both fun and enjoyable, you too can leap in the air or dance around with your dog like I did yesterday when a really good one comes in!
