Betting Tissue Tool - Automatically create your own betting forecasts to find value bets
Pro Gamblers create their own betting forecast prices, to compare against the live prices to help them find overpriced horses in the market. It's an effective way of finding some very big priced winners, but it's also very time consuming and complicated!
You can now automate this process by using your own unique combination of ratings and form, change the settings to perfect your ratings and find overpriced, value bets, day after day.
What is a betting tissue and how will it help win money from betting on horses?
Creating your own betting tissue is a way of pricing up a race to create your own odds for each horse. You can then compare your odds with the Bookmakers and spot horses that may be overpriced. If you calculate a horse should be around 2/1 and it is on offer at 7/1, then you have yourself a value bet.
By using your own choice of speed ratings and/or form criteria and ranking these in order, you can create a total rating number for each horse, turn this number into a percentage chance for each runner and from this, calculate your betting odds.
A quick explanation and example.
To make your own betting tissue, you give points to each horse, add up or multiply the points, then divide each horses points by the total amount. This will give you a percenatge for each horse which we can turn into the odds.
The points you give to each horse to work out the final odds, can be as simple or as complex as you like but will be a choice of one or more form criteria. On the Betting Tissue Tool you can choose to add up or multiply either the ranking positions or the form criteria figures themselves for each horse.
For example, a very simple way could be by just taking the number of winners each Trainer has trained this year.
In a 5 horse race you may have:
Horse A - Trainer has trained 25 winners
Horse B - 20
Horse C - 5
Horse D - 10
Horse E - 2
So the total number of winners is 62.
For Horse A, 25 is 40% of 62, divide 100 by 40 to get a decimal price of 2.5, which is actually 1.5, or 6/4.
Horse B, 20 is 32.3% of 62, divide 100 by 32.3 to get decimal price of 3.1, or just over 2/1
Horse C, 5 is 8.1% of 62, divide 100 by 8.1 to get decimal price of 12.3, or just over 11/1
Horse D, 10 is 16.1% of 62, divide 100 by 16.1 to get decimal price of 6.2, or just over 5/1
Horse E, 2 is 3.2% of 62, divide 100 by 3.2 to get decimal price of 31.25, or just over 30/1.
Your betting tissue is now: Horse A 6/4, Horse B 2/1, Horse D 5/1, Horse C 11/1, Horse E 30/1
In this example I have added up the form criteria, i.e the number of winners for each Trainer, rather than the ranking positions, as we only have the one form criteria in this example. If you chose to add up the rank positions instead, Horse A would get 5 points as it is the top ranked of 5, Horse B would get 4 points and so on. The total number would 5 + 4 +3 + 2 +1 =15.
Adding up the ranking positions here would give a different set of odds with Horse A being around 2/1 and Horse B being around 11/4.
You can play around with the settings yourself and a lot will depend on the ratings and form criteria that you select. Ideally you want to get a sensible looking betting forecast like we have above, but you can change the settings to add or multiply, either rank position or rating figures on the fly and just re run the tissue builder, without having to reload all of your data. It is all very fast!
Using your betting tissue odds.
When the race is about to start, you may find that Horse B is being offered at 7/1, while you have calculated it should be around 2/1, albeit from this very simple example. This means that all things being equal, once you have settled on your choice of ratings and/or form, you are getting that all important 'value price'', getting 7/1 about a 2/1 shot.
Equally you could find that Horse C is being offered at 2/1 and you may want to lay this horse because you think it has little chance as you have priced it up at 11/1.
Just using the winners for each Trainer is probably too simple a set of criteria to use but hopefully you can see what we are trying to achieve and how it is possible to create your very own betting forecasts to work from.
As you can imagine, doing this manually would be very, very time consuming, so a lot of people mostly don't bother and miss out on some very big, value priced winners.
However, the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool allows you to choose from over 50 form and speed rating categories giving hundreds of combinations of calculations and settings and it will create your own betting tissues for every race on the day in just seconds.
Value betting puts you in control
When Bookmakers price up most races, they often only take into account the recent form figures and the popularity of the trainer and jockey, as they know this is what the majority of punters will expect them to do. Lets be honest, if we just looked at these simple form factors ourselves we would all probably come up with the same favourite or first three or four favourites in most races.
But by just taking the odds that are on offer, whatever they are, gives us no betting edge whatsoever and just means we will continue to back horses at 'bad' or 'wrong' odds that are not in our favour and we will continue to lose.
Getting value odds on your bets and knowing the real chance a horse has of winning is the key to long term profit and is why many Pro Gamblers price up races for themselves using different methods to the Bookmakers. By taking more information about each runner into account and calculating more accurate odds, they can compare their own prices to those on offer and then only back horses which they feel are overpriced.
Backing every horse at 3/1 when it's really a 6/1 or 7/1 shot will leave you broke. However backing a horse at 6/1, 7/1 or bigger when it really should be a 3/1 shot, will guarantee you long term profits.
Take a horse that has recent form figures of 121, trained by John Gosden. That horse is priced up as the 2/1 favourite in a half decent handicap race and of course it will have a good chance of winning. However, the horse is now running over a distance he has never won at and at a course where he has run four times at before without coming close.
In the same race there is a horse that has form figures of 49978 that hasn't come within ten lengths of the winner in it's last five races. It is trained by someone you have never heard of, ridden by a jockey you have never heard of and is priced up at 10/1.
What you don't know is that this unknown trainer has had a 30% strike rate of winners from his small yard in the last 14 days, the horse is now running back at his favourite distance where he has won three times out of six and the apprentice jockey has already ridden three winners this week.
Now this does not mean that the second horse should be the favourite or that it will win and beat the John Gosden runner, but by knowing more about each horse you can get a better idea of the actual chance it has. What you still can't do from knowing this information though, are the true value odds of these horses and what the minimum price should be before you back either one of them.
So how can you work out more accurate odds than the Bookmakers provide us with?
The way to do this is by giving different points of value to each piece of form that you think are most important and then rank each horse by the totals to give a percentage chance. By comparing this percentage chance to all of the other runners in the race you will be able get the odds that each horse should really be.
Now this is very doable, but it's not an easy task to rate and price up each horses that is running every day and it would literally take hours of your time to calculate all of these figures and odds.
This is where the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool comes in.
Simplfy the whole operation with just a few clicks.
The betting tissue tool will allow you to choose just the form, and/or speed ratings data, that you think are the most important to use, take all of this resulting data and then rank all runners in order for each race. It will then calculate the correct odds that each runner should be, as well as giving you the minimum price that you should accept on each runner before placing a bet.
This is all done for every horse running on the day, in every race, in a matter of seconds.
You can also run your settings against past results to see how your ratings and odds have worked on previous races and tweak these as many times as you like to help find the perfect set of rules and criteria.
You cannot calculate an accurate betting tissue manually for every race that you are interested in, without using the Inform Racing betting tissue tool.
A real working example
Below you can see two images showing the very simple settings I have chosen and then a race at Southwell where the settings have been applied. You can read about all of the settings on this link here but for this example I have selected the 'Ratings and Form' criteria very simply as:
Master - This is the Inform Racing Master speed rating and is the best speed rating achieved in the past 12 months.
PrizeMoney - Total winning prize money for each horse in pounds.
Trainer Win% Last14Days - Percentage of winners each trainer has had in the last 14 days.
You can see all of the resulting data for each category in blue. So for horse No.1 Cold Harbour the Master Rating was 82, the total winning prize money was £15,526 and the Trainer Win% was 26.1.
All of these figures are then ranked in order, shown in red, depending on the number of runners in the race and in this example I am using the Rank Positions to create the total number as we have three rating and form categories.
So as there were six runners, the horse with the highest Master rating gets 6 points. In this race there were two joint top rated horses, so they both got 6 rank points for the Master rating, the next gets 5, then 4, down to the lowest ranked of all. This is worked out for each Rating or Form criteria chosen and you can select as many or as few as you like.
On the settings you can see I have chosen to Multiply the Rank points, so for Cold Harbour you have 6 x 5 x 6 = 180 and you do this for all runners, then add these up to get the RankTotalRace figure of 366. From here you work out the Rank% for each horse against the total for the race, so the Cold Harbour rank total of 180 is 49.2% of 366 and that gives us a Decimal Tissue price of 2.03, or just over Evens.
When you have your Tissue price you want to increase this or multiply this to ensure that you are betting at bigger prices to gain your 'value bets' every time. I have chosen to multiply the Tissue price by 1.5 as you will see on the settings.
So the Tissue price of 2.03 X 1.5 = 3.05 and that is now the minimum Decimal price, or price on the betting exchanges that you will want to achieve before placing a bet. All minimum prices you want for each horse are shown in green in the MinBSP column.
Race result and explanations.
Now look at the finishing positions and the BSP of each runner on the right and you will see that Tyrsal won at a handsome BSP of 25.71. You can see that whilst the real Forecast Price (FC) in the Racing Post was 25/1 for this horse, taking our chosen criteria, ranking these and creating our own Betting Tissue and 'value' tissue odds, we rated the horse at 5.08, or just bigger than a 4/1 chance.
Quite a big difference I am sure you will agree! By multiplying this 5.08 by the 1.5 means that the minimum, value betting price we wanted for this horse was 7.63. Not only was the actual price much bigger, giving us massive value bet on this particular runner, it was the only horse in the race that started at higher than the MinBSP figure.
So how did we get such value bet on the rank outsider in a six runner race?
Most punters would just look at the basic form of each horse before the race - if they even bothered to do that - and if they did that for the winner Tyrsal they would have seen very average form figures of 45846 and that the closest the horse had come to the winner in any of these races was four lengths.
The handicap mark of 46 was the same as it was for the previous three races so there was no big drop in handicap mark either. Then whilst the trainer Phil McAtee would be respected on the All Weather, the jockey Gavin Ashton was a fairly unknown seven pound claimer with only a handful of wins under his belt.
Seemingly fair enough to be forecast at 25/1 you would think?
How the betting tissue tool and the data that we chose calculated some very different and perhaps far more accurate odds.
As you can see from the race image above, using just the three simple categories of Master rating, previous winning prize money and the recent trainer form, Tyrsal had the second highest total ranking number of 72. This meant that compared to the rank total for the race of 366, we calculated that the horse really had a close to 20% of winning and should have been forecast at nearer 4/1 than 25/1.
Even if you did look at the form factors that I chose and realised that there was more to this horse than its odds would suggest, how would you then decide on what would be a value price to accept compared to all of the others in the same race?
Only by automating the whole process simply and effectively, can you calculate the correct odds that every horses should be and you only need to be reasonably accurate with your choice of settings and form criteria that you choose, to be able to be successful and make money from horse racing and your value bets.
Can you start to see how the Inform Racing Betting Tissue tool will be invaluable when searching for big, value priced winners?
I have suggested before that once you have created your betting tissue, that you concentrate on the first five horses by your calculated Tissue odds. This means you should be focussing on those that do really have a chance and ignoring any that are simply too wide of the mark, going by price.
This is of course up to you and you can play around with all of the settings and combinations until you are happy, but by using the simple rules above and only looking at the first five horses in each race - I also selected just Handicaps on the settings - there was a close to 20% strike rate of winners on the day and a healthy profit made too.
Also, at this Southwell meeting, six of the seven winners were found from the first two in my betting tissue forecast, with the winning BSP's of 11.29, 9.02, 4.11, 2.18, 5.14 and 25.71, so you very could very well look to use this for finding Placepot bets, placed bets only or dutching more than one horse in a race.
When value betting you will be placing bets that have a greater chance of wining than those implied by the Bookmakers.
By using more detailed form criteria than others would be bothered to and then using the Betting Tissue Tool to rate, rank and calculate all of the odds for each runner on the day in seconds, you can look forward to making long term profits, knowing that you are getting value odds on every single bet that you place.
Only place value bets every day by using the Betting Tissue Tool
PLUS! Use the Betting Tissue Tool to create your very own, unique horse racing ratings.
When you choose your ratings and/or form criteria each time, you will be able to view a total number value for each horse. This value will now become your own unique rating and you can use these to highlight the better rated horses in a race that are in with a chance of winning.
All you need is a subscription to Inform Racing
Unlimited access to the Betting Tissue Tool is available with all new Inform Racing subscriptions, so start turning your ideas into money and join today.