Value Winners at Big Odds
I have always been keen to find a way of backing lots of value winners at big odds but of course as anyone who follows betting knows, this is not an easy task at all. Most winners come from the first three, four or five in the betting and in a normal race this will still only mean the biggest of these five would be around 6/1 or 7/1.
So you then try to look at the runners at 10/1 or bigger but there are usually no real reasons why most if not all of these should win. Of course, in handicaps a lot of the outsiders will be way below their last winning mark and could pop in at any time but who knows when and if at all this will happen.
A lot of people who really understand their betting and odds etc., suggest you compile your own betting forecast for each race or those that you are interested in and then if you are confident about your own prices, go on to compare these with the actual prices at the off and if you can better the odds of a runner that feel is bigger than it should be, will make a profit in the long term. The real meaning of getting value.
So for example, if you price up a race and have horse A around about 5/1, yet the horse goes off at 10/1 then all things being equal you will make a long term profit getting far better than industry SP BUT as long as your forecast prices are accurate – not an easy thing to do I assure you.
I have tried in the past but I am often way out and have a horse that I think should be one of the favourites go off at 20/1 and of course it runs like a 20/1 shot coming last or unplaced at least. So, how can you get better value on these outsiders without having to do the leg work yourself and price up each runner in all the races you are interested in?
Well, if you don’t know how to do it, why not find someone that does and use their betting forecasts? And who best to use but the absolute professional and full time racing experts at the Racing Post.
The guys who do the betting forecasts for the Racing Post are as knowledgeable as can be in racing and all things betting and the forecasts that they compile are what all of the betting industry will base their prices on and the opening show of the betting, so I thought this would be a good place to start to try and find any decent, value bets and to be frank, I was quite blown away with my results!
Let's look at some results.
On Tuesday 9th July 2013 I looked back at just the previous four days of racing and found these amazing results below. I decided to only look at horses that were one of the first three in the betting forecast (Racing Post) for handicaps only, up to and including those forecast at 7/1 and in fields of up to 14 declared. Then I would only take any of those that went of at a Betfair Starting Price of 11.0 or bigger.
Friday July 5th
BSP 17.06 (4.1)
Saturday July 6th
BSP 24.0 (4.39)
Sunday July 7th
4.45 Market Rasen
4.45 Market Rasen
BSP 11.0 (3.8)
Monday 8th July
3.45 Newton Abbot
No Loose Change*
BSP 24.88 (5.0)
+58.92 (incl. -5% comm.)
* No Loose Change was 4th favourite in the betting forecast at 13/2 but as the third favourite was a non-runner I included this one as it became third favourite in the paper and it was forecast at 7/1 or less.
If the horse was placed the BSP place price is in brackets.
Summary of value winners at big odds
So in just four days there were 6 winners from 19 bets (32% strike rate) and a decent profit at SP or BSP and I would suggest a very decent way of finding value bets at very decent prices.
You can of course jig things around regards race type, number of runners and prices etc but this could be the base for a winning method you can use at any time with your betting.