How To Make Money When Backing Favourites

I was looking at the stats regarding the favourites recently and as you will probably be aware, they generally win about 35% of all races.

This figure has increased over the past few years, probably down to how accurate the odds have become on the betting exchanges and predominantly Betfair.

I say accurate, but of course this still means that about 65% of all favourites lose, however, as you go down the rankings to second fav, third fav and further, the chances of success decrease.

So with the favourites having the biggest winning percentage, it seems a fair place to start for many.

Another general thought is that these favourites almost break even over a season or lose just a little perhaps, so I looked back at the results from 2022, 2023 and the current year to date.

Using the system builder it easy to check back on an almost unlimited number of data sets, or system rules, to find what wins and what doesn't.

I chose to use the BSP favourite rather than the SP favourite and odds of 6.5 or less for these and the differences are quite stark.

2022

In 2022 there was a strike rate of 35.71% and a loss to £1 stakes of £99.89. Almost bearing out my initial statement of the favs winning around 35% of the time and just making a small loss.

You can also see how much less the BSP loss was compared to the £600 lost betting to the Industry Starting Prices.

All images can be clicked to enlarge them if necessary.

2023

In 2023 there was a worse strike rate of 33.93% and a loss to £1 stakes of quite a hefty £349.21. 

2024

In 2024 so far, things seem to be going quite nicely, with a strike rate of 36.52% and a decent profit in about five months of over £136 to a £1 stake. 

However, where that will end up at the end of the year is anyone's guess.

Improving these results

I have made a short video which you can watch below, that succeeds in improving these results, fairly dramatically.

Just by using the result breakdowns on the system builder and in fact just two factors in particular, you can increase the strike rate to over 40% and turn that £312 pound loss, into a £240 profit.

So a 14% increase in strike rate and a swing in profits of over £500.

Take a look at the video on YouTube here >>

Conclusion

Backing favourites is not a bad thing but it won't leave you in profit if you just back them blindly.

So, why not try and see when these favourites win more, so that you can do the same.

By using the result breakdowns on the Inform Racing system builder, it is easy to find what is blocking your success, as I have shown you on the video above, to increase your chances.

Again, you may still not want to back all of the filtered favourites blindly but you will have at least narrowed down the number of bets to find when the favourites do win more of the time and take a more detailed look at those horses yourself before putting your money down.

Of course you can use any of the other result breakdowns yourself to improve further what I have shown you on the video.

Plus, you can then do the same with any number of other systematic ideas that I am sure that you must have.