How To Create Your Own Betting Forecast Odds
I wrote a post very recently regarding how to find value bets using the Inform Racing betting tissue tool, a feature on the site that allows users to automatically create their own betting tissue forecast odds.
You can take a look at that post here >>
Before I started using the Betting Tissue Tool (BTT), I had watched few pundits on tv summarising a race and one or two would say that 'horse x is too big at 33/1, I thought it would be about half that price', or words to that effect.
They would then say what their fancy was in the race but also - due to the odds of horse x - they would have a couple of quid on thqt one just because the odds were more than double what 'they thought' they should be.
They didn't neccessarily say they thought it would win, they just thought the odds were too big, given the chance that it had in their opinion.
Often, using the BTT, it can be almost too easy to find dozens of horses that - depending on what settings and form criteria you select to calculate your odds - are twice the price of what your forecast odds suggest they should be and you feel you could just back everything and anything at better odds. But this probably won't get you very far in the long run.
Unless you are a walking form guide like these tv pundits seem to be or have been using the BTT for a long time now and have real confidence in what you have selected as your rules, you need to take a step back and think hard about what you really want to back. Or as I will cover lately, also back against.
Bookies and Betfair odds.
One thing you can be sure about is that those who set the odds, know what they are talking about and only make money because of their knowledge built up over the years and years of bookmaking, along with dozens of insiders who share their stable info and more.
The base line is, that the odds of most horses are usually about right, especially reagrding the first five or six in the betting, in your daily 6 to 12 or 14 runner handicaps.
I followed a few races one day this week and have shown my results, where I predominently looked at the race a little differently using the BTT.
2.50 Wincanton
I will go through the settings I used on this day further on but take a look at the 2.50 Wincanton race below. The Tissue column shows my calculated forecast odds and the FC column is the actual forecast price. The figure in green is what my settings say should be the minimum odds I should take on these horses if I am backing them.
(Click images to enlarge).
The BSP of these runners in order as I have them above were:
11.17, 4.1, 19, 5.07, 12.5, 12.87, 4.07, 101.58
So only Calme Olympian had a better BSP at 11.17 than my calculated minimum odds - so I backed it and it lost. This is the most common way of using your own forecast odds calculations, whichever way you calculate them.
However, I wanted to also try a different angle as well, concentrating more on the forecast favourites and the two or three favourites by BSP near the off. I wanted to try and find an edge on these favoured horses as they are likely to have a better chance of winning if I back them and a smaller BSP if I choose to lay them.
With Jukebox King being the actual forecast fav and the BSP favourite at the off and because its odd were almost half (ish) of what my calculations considered to be the minimum 'value bet' to back it, (7.34 to 4.3 when I placed the bet), I also laid Jukebox King
With Geezer Rockstar winning, I lost a fiver and I won a fiver, so came out even on the race. I should have also layed Matthias as its odds of 4.07 were way shorter than my minimum bet odds of 51.76.
In general I'm not looking to lay anything less than around 5.0, really I prefer less than 4.0 but one important thing, is I was taking each race as it comes and weighing it up close the off to see how I feel about the race and the odds. Especially when I am placing lay bets on the favourites, knowing how often they do win.
Jukebox King came second by 5 or so lengths but I layed others later on that only just got beat and this is an important point when laying using your tissue odds on the BTT.
I am not saying I think this horse is going to lose, I am saying that I think the odds of about 3/1 (BSP 4.1), are too short when I say it should be about a 6/1 chance given my minimum calculated odds of 7.24.
It is a subtle difference in thinking. It could win and you wouldn't be surprised if it did but you are laying it at value odds, the reverse of backing it at value odds. Which if you can get this right - with your choice of settings on the BTT - will deliver long term profits.
More of my bets
I placed more bets later on in the afternoon which I will go through briefly below. I will add that I have been using the same settings for a while now and it doesn't seem at this point, to be so successful on the all weather handicaps - where the races seem a lot more open - and I will be explaining a little more on this towards the end of this blog.
There were also a couple of races I ignored due to no odds edge I could find or odds too short etc.
3.00 Southwell
You can see the tissue odds for this race below and my minimum backing odds in green for Ukantango of 3.48. I again took shorter odds than I could have done but at odds of 3.55 and with Sean Bowen riding for Olly Murphy I decided to back it successfully.
Looking at the tissue minimum and the BSP of Intenzo, I could have or should have also laid that horse being that the odds were much shorter but I missed that one.
3.40 Sedgefield
In the 3.40 Sedgefield, my tissue favourite was shorter at the off than my minimum odds but not by far enough to suggest the odds were 'wrong'. The second favourite Myfavouritesister was going off around the 4.00 mark, whereas my minimum odds for backing this horse was over 50.0.
At the timle, I had the tv on and the trainer of Myfavouritesister did say, he really wasn't sure about the ground at Sedgefield for his runner and it turned out to be true, as the horse was pulled up not too long after the start, after being always behind from the off.
So it would have been a lay bet for me anyway, given the actual Betfair odds, compared to my minimum odds for a back bet, but the trainers comments were very helpful indeed as well..
The other horse that my tissues minimum odds had quite short at 4.93 was Clean Getaway, with the odds on offer closer to 6.0 when I placed the bet - although it went out to 7.2 at the off, silly me.
So my minimum odds to back were 4.93, I got 6.0 that could have been bigger and the horse has a good previous record at Sedgefield. So I placed a back bet and it won, giving me a double success on that race for me.
It was only really because it was second fav on my tissue odds and quite a lot shorter than the third fav at 6.10 that I looked into this one more - I think. As I say, I am not betting to rigid rules here, just taking each race as it comes, concentrating mainly on my tissues favs/second favs, the actual forecast favs/second favs and the two or three shorter odds runners by BSP near the off.
It is worth noting that we will not always be right with these and there are plenty of horses that go off at very different odds to those that were forecast.
You also have horses that have not run often, changed trainer or are just being backed so you have to feel your way around a horse and a race if your odds are way out compared to the odds available. Many horses shorten drastically during the day and close to the off, only for the supposed gamble to fail.
3.50 Wincanton
You can see my tissue odds below for this race where Walkinthepast had minimum back odds on the BTT of 4.35.
In a race that looked quite tight between the first three or four in the actual forecast odds and with my tissue odds, I chose to lay this horse near the off at much shorter odds of 2.3 and it came in fourth I think in the end.
4.20 Wincanton
The last race for me was a back and a lay that broke even. Kingcormac was my tissue favourite and the forecast odds favourite with minimum back odds of 3.71. Because the actual Betfair odds were 4.7 I chose to back it.
Universal Secret, whose minimum back odds on my tissue were over 40.0 and having Betfair odds of around 5/2, I placed a lay bet on this one.
With Move To The Beat winning, I lost nothing and won nothing in this race.
Reviewing my attempts.
Going through these now, my bets seem to be a little more vague compared to how I felt I was approaching these races at the time. However, I hope you can get the gist of what I was doing with each particular race as it came up.
No absolute rules but an idea of how big or small the odds wanted to be on each runner that I was looking at to back or to lay, giving some lee way here and there depending on the odds, the number of runners, known form of the horse or trainer comments.
Not looking for those big 33/1 shots that I have calculated should be much shorter and have a better chance than their odds. Concentrating on the favoured runners to back with a better chance of winning and to lay with lower odds and less damage if they win.
I hope this gives you some other ideas on how you can use the BTT.
I think that these smaller races in general where you have a shortish priced fav, are the better races to use with this approach.
Some of the recent all weather races had my tissue odds really quite big even for the favourite. Take a look at these two I have just looked at for today at Southwell.
Both minimum odds are over 6.0 for the favourites and if this was an actual betting forecast, we would say this race was wide open and possibly one to avoid.
In the first race, Musical Touch went on to win at BSP 3.55, from actual betting forecast odds of 8/1 and against my minimum odds in green of over 18.0.
Playing how I had with the previous races, Musical Touch would have been a lay bet but I didn't place a bet as it didn't feel right, given the shape of the race on my BTT.
With the tissue favs at over 6.0, it just makes me feel that these races aren't going to be as easy to find an edge in as the smaller fields, or races with some shorter minimum odds. And of course, we don't need to be betting in every race on the day.
My settings
You can see the very simple rules I am using for this at present below. Copy these if you wish to and see how you get on and let me know in the comments as well, if you have had any success with your settings.
I know a number of subscribers use this every day as their main feature, so see what form criteria you think should be used to calculate your tissue odds.
Very simply, I am using only four form criteria for these, which are the BHA or Official Rating for each horse. The Ability rating, which is a claculation on the horses winning prize money divided by the number of wins, the Form rating, so last three form figures of 111, would total 3 and form figures of 526, would total 13 etc. - with the lower numbers ranked higher in this instance. And the Master speed rating.
So apart from the Form rating, most of the other form criteria you can select from ranks the highest or best down to the lowest or worst number/winning percentage or whatever.
I set my MinBSP to 1.3 and not the default 1.5. This is how much the tissue odds are multiplied by to get your green minimum BSP odds to bet at. 1.5 adds 50%, 1.3 adds 33%. This MinBSP number adds a little buffer to the tissue price to ensure that you are only going to bet when the odds are even better than your tissue odds.
You can use 0.5 or 0.75 if you wanted to be laying predominently, so your tissue odds would be 50% less or 75% less.
The rest should be clear, I have my cards set here to be sorted in order of my tissue odds and then I take it from there.
The profit and loss section at the bottom is irrelevant when using this more thoughtful approach and not betting everything that is shown to be a bet.
Stop Press
I had another winning 'double bet' at Chepstow the following day, successfully backing Blow Your Wad and Laying Knight of Allan. My green price for tissue favourite Blow Your Wad was only 2.33, so the Betfair odds of 4.8 looked too good and it was still the third fav, where it was tightish at the top of the market.
The race favourite had Betfair odds of 3.27 against my calculated odds that said it should have a tissue price of 12.78 and minimum back odds of over 16, so going by my calcs here, that horse was way too short at around 9/4 and a 'value' lay bet.
You can hone your BTT skills as much as you like. Just choose your criteria and settings and build your tissue odds, for every race that you choose, in a matter of seconds. Then change them and just run it all through again.
There are a number of form criteria that you can select from to calculate your tissue prices, just decide which ones you think make the most difference when pricing up a race.
And don't forget, each time you create a betting tissue, you also create a Total Rating score for each horse, (see on the examples above), so you will also be creating your own horse racing ratings, which you can look at over time, summarise and use to benefit your betting again.
PS I have only just noticed that I had changed my back bets from £5 to £2 last night when playing around with some all weather racing, so my profit on Blow Your Wad, was less than it might have been.
See more here about the BTT >>
The videos below are quite old now and things have improved but you will see how the BTT can be used very easily every day.
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