How To Make Money When Backing Favourites

If you’ve ever wondered whether backing the favourite is a smart way to profit in horse racing, you’re not alone. Favourites win roughly 35% of all UK races, but that also means around 65% of favourites lose. So how do you know if following the favourite is a path to profit—or a slow drain on your betting bank?

Favourites in Horse Racing: What the Stats Say

Over the last few years, the percentage of winning favourites has risen slightly, largely thanks to the accuracy of betting exchange markets like Betfair. The odds reflect a horse’s true chance more closely than ever—but that doesn’t mean profit is guaranteed.

I recently analysed favourites using Inform Racing’s System Builder, looking at BSP favourites with odds of 6.5 or less across 2022, 2023, and this year to date. Here’s what I found:

• 2022: Favourites had a 35.71% strike rate and produced a small loss of £99.89 to £1 stakes at BSP, compared to a £600 loss to Industry SP.

• The takeaway? Backing favourites isn’t automatically profitable, but using Betfair Starting Price can significantly reduce losses compared to SP.

Why This Matters to Bettors

Backing favourites can feel safe, but blind betting rarely pays. Instead, a smarter approach is to combine favourites with other insights, like:

• Speed ratings to confirm the favourite is truly the strongest contender.

• Class and going conditions to spot when a favourite is vulnerable.

• Market moves to identify when a favourite is under- or over-valued.

With these strategies, you can avoid the false favourites and focus on the ones that represent real betting opportunities.

2022

In 2022 there was a strike rate of 35.71% and a loss to £1 stakes of just under £100. 

2024

In 2024 so far, things seem to be going quite nicely, with a strike rate of 36.52% and a decent profit in about five months of over £136 to a £1 stake. 

However, where that will end up at the end of the year is anyone's guess.

Improving these results

I have made a short video which you can watch below, that succeeds in improving these results, fairly dramatically.

How to Turn Losing Favourites into Profitable Bets

By using Inform Racing’s System Builder, it’s possible to take the raw stats on favourites and transform them into a profitable strategy.

For example, by applying just two simple result breakdown filters, the strike rate jumps to over 40%, and what would have been a £312 loss turns into a £240 profit. That’s a 14% increase in strike rate and a £500+ swing in your betting results.

Conclusion

Backing favourites isn’t a bad approach—but blindly betting on every favourite will rarely produce profits. The key is to identify when and where favourites win more often and focus your bets there.

With Inform Racing’s result breakdowns, you can easily see the patterns that separate winners from losers. Even if you don’t back every filtered favourite, you’ll:

• Reduce the number of poor bets
• Focus on situations where favourites are stronger
• Make better-informed betting decisions

And remember, the System Builder isn’t limited to favourites—you can apply these filters to any strategy or idea you want to test, unlocking new opportunities for long-term profit.