Combining The Speed Ratings
Many new subscribers ask what is the best way to use the speed ratings and I always tell them that a way of getting positive results can be by combining the speed ratings columns.
This means you are using two, or more, of the columns available on the Inform Racing race cards and taking either the top or top 3 rated and concentrating on these blindly, or using a little more form research, as I often suggest, to narrow down the selections to just one or two.
My initial thought was to combine the Master rating with another column but to get a good overview of latest form and ratings, I decided to look at horses that were top rated in both the Lto (Last time out rating) and the AVG column (the Average of the last three ratings achieved).
With a number of horses falling, pulling up etc.. over the jumps, which would distort the Avg column for this test, I decided to concentrate on just flat racing and have a full set of results for September 2017, with some excellent results.
1 Flat races only
2. No Maiden races
3. Horse must be top or joint top rated in both the Lto and Avg column.
4. If more than one selection, back both or all.
Race card with winning example.
The card below has been sorted by the Lto column showing the speed rating for the Last time out run. This brings the top or highest rating to the top and you can see that both Shazzab and Dathanna are joint top with a rating of 80.
Scan across to the Avg column which shows the average of the last three ratings and you will see that Shazzab has the highest rating here at 75, concluding that Shazzab is the selection in this race.
Click the image below to open it in a new window.
As you can see by the Position and SP on the far right, Shazzab won at 16/1 beatingt Dathanna into second place at 13/8.
It is worth noting that Shazzab ran in a Class 5 race last time and only came third, compared to Dathanna who ran in a Class 2 race and won, whilst the race above was a Class 4 as shown by the (4) in the race header.
The main reason for the massive difference in price is more than likely the fact that Shazzab was going up in class and Dathanna was going down in class, however the speed ratings show you that there was actually no difference in the actual form.
Most people would use the same form reading ‘skills’ and give Shazzab no chance but this is a great example of when the form says no yet the speed ratings are screaming out yes! And at a great value price too.
Overall the results were promising and ultimately profitable but there were quite a few bets, which as I will show you could have been reduced.
The selections themselves are simple to find by opening the race cards by race time, sort the cards by the Lto column and then work through the days racing as it proceeds looking for all horses that are top or joint highest in the Lto and Avg column.
The first set of results show every bet for the whole month.
Strike rate: 29%
Winning SP total: + 265.17
Minus all losing bets (224): +41.17 points profit
A pretty good return on investment of 13% with an average of 10.5 bets a day.
This next set of results show only results for those priced at 11/4 or bigger.
Strike rate: 20%
Winning SP total: +194.8
Minus all losing bets (152): +42.8 points profit
This final set of results is probably the most impressive, taking only those horses with an SP of 8/1 or bigger.
Strike rate: 24%
Winning SP total: +91
Minus all losing bets (28): +63 points profit
Betting these to Betfair Starting Price including less 5% commission: +112.70
Minus all losing bets (28): +84.7 points profit
A massive 228% return on investment!
Whilst I totally understand it is not always easy to bet at only 8/1 or bigger, it does show you that waiting for the better prices would have been well worthwhile, increasing profits by approximately 50% to SP and around 100% using BSP, including the 5% commission.
The lowest Betfair price for the 9 winners was 11.0 so it is possible to set up the bets in something like Bet Angel to only bet if the price just before the off is 11.0 or any price of your choice to trap these bigger prices.
All of the results can be checked if you are a subscriber by using the Historical Meetings link which shows all results as the cards were when posted including Position and SP, just like the race card above with the winning example.
To subscribe to Inform Racing and access the ratings please click here >>