Laying Last Time Out Winners – System Builder Tutorial
I was playing around with the system builder yesterday, looking for ideas, ways and strategies on how to successfully lay last time out winners.
It appears that in all handicap races on the flat turf, since 2018 - the rules I chose to get started on this angle - about 17% of horses that won last time out, went on to win again.
You can take a look at the video further down the page and see what else I found out about these horses. But also bear in mind there are many other categories that you could use to drill down deeper into these horses.
I looked at their Betfair Starting Price and ranking position in the Betfair market to get a basic view on what sort of price and market position would help.
I also looked at what the SP was in their last race. Was it just short priced winners that went on to win again? Or was it even more likely that a winning outsider would pass the post first again next time out?
I checked out the days since the win to see if it was important to run again soon after winning or not.
Then I did a check on the race distance and the going, but there are hundreds of other form categories that you could use to find a lot more ways to lay these last time out winners.
Other criteria you could look at
I ended up with a small profit and decent strike rate but I am going to be delving a little deeper into this myself and the point is, so can you too.
What other things could you use on the system builder that could help to find more horses that lost after winning last time out?
**Age of the horse - do younger horses win again more often than their older competitors?
**Last time out Course - do certain courses make it easier to win again from perhaps?
**Last time out winning distance - would a horse that won by a couple of lengths or more have a better chance of winning again than one that just got its head in front?
**What about the class of the race? - do those running in better races win again more often?
**The run style, the weight the horse carried, the number of previous runs the horse has had, the jockey allowance, or one of many, many other form factors you could look at here.
And of course I only looked at flat turf racing handicaps, so there may be even more better angles if you wanted to look at All Weather racing, Chase races or Hurdles.
With the results breakdowns we have on the system builder, it really is a simple task to see what particular factors are good for your ideas are are not.
Don't forget that if you start out looking for a laying system idea, that fails miserably, you may just have found yourself a decent backing system idea that you can look into further! And of course vice versa.
Declarations
Once you have your systems you can then load them and get all of the declarations for that day by selecting Declarations at the top instead of Results.
But it is not only your systems that you can use to find your declarations for.
You can use it to find any type of horse or form criteria that is running today.
Such as all horses running today that ran within 30 days, or indeed all horses running today that won last time out in handicaps on the flat.
Or you can combine both of these rules as I have done on the two images below, as well as add any number of other rules that you want to, to find any type of horse that is running today, all provided in a list for you, sorted by race time.
All images can be clicked to enlarge them if you need to.
You could also add that the trainers win% over the last 14 days must be 20% or better, or only those running in class 3 races or lower, or that it must be one of the top 3 rated on speed ratings in it's race.
Maybe that the horse has only had 20 races in total so far or less, is aged between 4 and 9 years old, is wearing cheekpieces for the first time and wasn't favourite last time out!
Whatever type of horse that you want to look for you can using the system builder rules for declarations and not only just for your systems.
Take a look at the video
You can watch the video here on this page or you can click the link below to watch it on YouTube.
Inform Racing system builder and result breakdowns
If you haven't seen our system builder before then it is well worth a look on the link below.
You can research all of your system ideas, both backing and laying, use a number of staking plans, download all results into excel, find all system bets each day in a flash for all of your systems with the click of just one button - and much more!
What are your thoughts?
As always, leave your comments at the bottom of this post and maybe we can all help each other find more winner bets and less losing ones.