Won 50/1, Won 18/1, Placed 33/1 – Spotting Big Priced Opportunities
Big priced winners do come in perhaps more often than you may think but in some handicap races where the favourite is 3/1, 4/1 or bigger, you can find yourself some excellent betting opportunities on the outsiders.
And in all honesty these are not at all impossible to find - if you know what you are looking for.
Speed Ratings + Well handicapped + Some proof of form in the conditions (can) = big priced winners.
Now I know this equation above doesn't roll off the tongue quite like E = MC squared and it is probably not as definitive an equation as that of Albert Einstein, but if you have a couple of minutes each day to look through the Inform Racing speed rating race cards, you can put it to some use.
Yesterday there were the three successful each way bets, along with some losers too of course. I had the 50/1 winner and the 33/1 placed horse as I missed the earlier part of the days racing.
However, they all had certain things in common.
1. They all had a Master rating equal to or better than the par for the race.
2. They were all what I consider to be well handicapped, which is 3lb higher than their last win in the same race type or less.
3. They had some proof of form in today's race conditions.
The first of the three was Dolphin Square at Sandown. Won 18/1
Take a look at the video below to see the selection process for this type of race.
Looking at the way I consider a horse to be well handicapped may not be what everyone would consider well handicapped.
Also if a horse hasn't already won a handicap race then usually I don't consider these until they have. There are situations I will if I spot something I like, but with a big race, high class handicap, it is nice to know the horse has won a handicap before - for me anyway.
I do also back horses that won last time out and are more than 3lbs higher than the previous win but in these big handicaps there are all sorts of horses on all sorts of marks and some really have no chance, so it is good to side with those that have won close to or above, their winning mark today.
Tying the handicap mark in with the speed ratings gives those who use them another advantage over those who don't.
The second runner was Fortescue at Aintree. 4th 33/1
You will see the race card below and you can take my word for it that Fortescue was the only contender who I considered well handicapped from all horses with a Master rating equal to or higher than the race par of 91.
Then, using the advanced search you can see the horse has a 30% strike rate when the going was good to soft and it was a chase race.
Fortescue plugged on very well at the end and pinched 4th place about 150 yards from the line I think. This gave me a place win at odds of 10.44.
These methods are very simple and ones that you can use everyday with the features on Inform Racing.
I am only looking at full handicaps, not novice or maiden handicaps, so you can select the races you want to look at in your race card settings and just show these.
It is easy then to sort by the Master rating to bring the best to the top, find what the speed ratings par for the race is and by hovering your mouse over each possible qualifier, see who you consider to be well handicapped and put them on youre short list.
I think you can do this in no more than 10 minutes even on a busy day of racing.
The third runner was Romoe Brown at Aintree. Won (quite easily) at 50/1
This was a brilliant race for anyone who backed the winner of course.
Watching the race I was just waiting for the pack to close as he led from the start but when it looked like he may get taken on in the home straight, he kept finding more and the first two actually pulled away from the others by a few lengths.
Check the video below to see again how to go over this race quickly and easily.
Of course there is nothing like backing a winner at 50/1 and I was lucky enough to get much better odds than that on Betfair, plus a nice payout on the place bet too.
You don't have to bet with huge stakes to enjoy a good winner I can asure you and I am more than happy to bet small when the odds are certainly not. As I said, big priced winners do come in and get placed more often than you may think.
You just need a solid way to find them first.
I have my main system builder system bets that I concentrate on every day but it is very satisfying to go through the cards and pick a good winner or two and as you can see, it doesn't have to be a lengthy process or a laborious one at that.
With all of the data you need at hand and easily available on our race cards, you can go through a days racing in a matter of minutes and whilst they won't all come in like they did yesterday - and I certainly had a number of losing bets myself later on - getting a big winner or two is a thrill!
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