How To Find Good Priced Winners
I put up a horse on Twitter yesterday that I spotted running in the last race at Kempton, mainly because of it's Master Rating compared to the highest ever Par Rating acheived for the race type and class.
This Par Rating has been a constant topic in recent Blog posts and you can read more about these on the two links below.
The horse in question yesterday was Lorna Cole and as you can see now the result has been added on the race card below, the horse that was top rated with a Master Rating of 83, won at a tidy 22/1 and by a comfortable 1 1/2 lengths.
What you can also see are the Class Pars in the race header, showing the par rating for the race type/age group was 74 and the highest ever achieved for the race type/age group was 81.
When a horse has a Master Rating of higher than the highest ever acheived, then it is time to take note as these can be quite rare and even more so when they are forecast at a decent price.
I am more than likely to back any of these selections as long as I can get a good each way price but there were a couple of other factors that made me want to post this on Twitter for others to see.
Some (very) basic form pointers for beginners.
Okay, so we know that the horse scored a rating higher than the previous best. This high rating was acheived with a win at Windsor just 97 days and 4 runs ago in a Class 5 event, so we can say the horse has run well fairly recently.
If you look again at the card above in the Cls column you can see a -1 and this means that the horse has been dropped in Class from a Class 5 to a Class 6 race. This latest Class 5 race was at Sandown and the horse was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths with the comments saying she was short of room a furlong out but kept on, suggesting she may have got closer to the winner with some better luck in running.
One thing to really note is when a horse drops to a class 6 race, especially a horse like Lorna Cole who has already won 3 races from only 18 starts and has a 33% strike rate for being placed. She has also already won 2 races on today's all weather surface at the start of her career in Maiden and Novice events, so this lightly raced Filly is by no means a fawlorn hope in today's low class race.
Horses that can certainly hold their own in Class 5 contests can be of a far better quality than horses that continuosly run in Class 6 races where basically you find older horses that are on a massive downgrade or horses that just aren't very good.
Remember, Lorna Cold recently won a Class 5 race at Windsor and has just come off the back of a decent enough run in a Class 5 race at Sandown, so this drop should certainly help. Whilst a drop from Class 4 to Class 5, or Class 3 to Class 4 for example can also be noted, a drop to this bottom grade of Class 6 is one to look for when you have a half decent, lightly raced animal.
Run Style to Draw
Another possible positive for the horse was it's held up Run Style figure on the card of a 4, especially when you see the horse was drawn wide on the outside in stall 11. I would have preferred a few more horses to have Run Style 1 or 2 in the race, so there would be more chance of a fast pace allowing Lorna Cole to run through tired horses at the end but I felt that being drawn so wide, the jockey had no choice but to drop the horse in at the start.
Indeed this is exactly what happened and the horse ran in last place until the final couple of furlongs and there did seem to be a good pace up front, which allowed jockey Martin Dwyer to come with a late run up the rail and take the race quite easily.
Inform Racing Form Guide
Finally, you may want to take a look at the previous form and the simple way that we show these for each horse running on the day.
Nothing amazing to note here but you can see the three wins highlighted in yellow and the three previous times when the horse ran in Class 6 races, not beaten at all far every time.
Today's jockey Martin Dwyer has ridden the horse in 14 of the 18 runs and has been on board for all of the wins and today's Official Rating of 62 is the same as when running well last time at Sandown. Lightly raced, still only aged 4 and forecast at 9/1, so definitely one worth noting on the day, in fact the only bet I had on the day.
One last thing that some may see as a negatyive was the 0/3 record over today's distance of 6 furlongs. For me 0/3 is no real concern and I have seen horses win at a distance after a 0/12 record before.
It was in my mind that the horse may not stay fully but the hope for some pace in the race and the horses preference for coming off a fast pace that did indeed play out, made me hope it could at least stay on for a place.
Of course we now know the horse won quite easily at a price of 22/1!
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